Hartlepool v AFC Hornchurch

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Hartlepool win at 41%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Hartlepool 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–27–32
3. 1′KICK-OFF Hartlepool v AFC Hornchurch
4. 20′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Hartlepool
5. 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Hartlepool win 35%)
6. 44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' AFC Hornchurch
7. 45′We said Hartlepool at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
8. 45′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 9–23–68
9. 45′SECOND HALF Hartlepool 0–0 AFC Hornchurch
10. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Hartlepool 0–1 AFC Hornchurch
11. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Hartlepool win: 41% at kick-off, 9% now
12. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' AFC Hornchurch win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 41%)
13. 46′AFC Hornchurch score on 46′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–23–68
14. 46′HALF-TIME Hartlepool 0–0 AFC Hornchurch
15. 50′48′: A. Balanta on the scoresheet for AFC Hornchurch, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 8–23–69
16. 56′We said Hartlepool at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–48–24
17. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Hartlepool 1–1 AFC Hornchurch
18. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Hartlepool win: 41% at kick-off, 28% now
19. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was AFC Hornchurch win 71%)
20. 57′GOAL DISALLOWED · 57' Hartlepool
21. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Hartlepool win: 41% at kick-off, 6% now
22. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' AFC Hornchurch win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 48%)
23. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' AFC Hornchurch · On: J. Walker · Off: H. Hearn
24. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' AFC Hornchurch · On: H. Sandat · Off: W. Greenidge
25. 67′🟥 RED CARD · 67' Hartlepool
26. 69′Hartlepool are down to ten from 69′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 3–18–79
27. 71′We said Hartlepool at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 1–1 · 20–63–17
28. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Hartlepool 1–1 AFC Hornchurch
29. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Hartlepool win: 41% at kick-off, 20% now
30. 71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was AFC Hornchurch win 79%)
31. 72′Hartlepool find the net on 72′. 1–1. 1–1 · 19–64–17
32. 73′We said Hartlepool at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–66–16
33. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 68' N. Eccleston · Hartlepool
34. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Hartlepool · On: B. Ilunga · Off: M. Clark
35. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Hartlepool · On: J. Nolan · Off: C. Deeming
36. 78′We said Hartlepool at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–73–12
37. 79′We said Hartlepool at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 2–1 · 88–11–1
38. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Hartlepool · On: L. Charman · Off: J. Hugill
39. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Hartlepool 2–1 AFC Hornchurch
40. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Hartlepool win: 41% at kick-off, 88% now
41. 79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Hartlepool win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 75%)
42. 80′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 89–10–1
43. 81′A goal for Hartlepool on 80′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 90–9–1
44. 81′We said Hartlepool at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
45. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Hartlepool win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
46. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' AFC Hornchurch · On: R. Loft · Off: M. Weston
47. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' AFC Hornchurch
48. 87′We said Hartlepool at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
49. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Hartlepool · On: C. Popov · Off: W. Harris
50. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 86' AFC Hornchurch · On: N. Ferguson · Off: A. Balanta
51. 94′2–1 at the end. Our 41% on Hartlepool comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
52. FTFULL TIME Hartlepool 2–1 AFC Hornchurch
53. FTHartlepool 2–1 AFC Hornchurch · Hartlepool win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.