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Harrogate Town v Sutton Utd

Harrogate Town
3–1Full time
Sutton Utd

National League · SAT 24 OCT · Exercise Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38
Harrogate Town 3–1 Sutton Utd HARROGATE TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Harrogate Town win58%
The market said56%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.262
The market’s Brier score0.298

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Harrogate Town win at 58%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Harrogate Town 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–22–20
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Harrogate Town v Sutton Utd
  4. 29′We said Harrogate Town at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–14–6
  5. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Harrogate Town 1–0 Sutton Utd
  6. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Harrogate Town win: 58% at kick-off, 80% now
  7. 30′A goal for Harrogate Town on 30′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–14–6
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 80–14–6
  9. 30′SUBSTITUTION · 27' Harrogate Town · On: G. Thomson · Off: W. McGowan
  10. 31′We said Harrogate Town at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  11. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Harrogate Town 2–0 Sutton Utd
  12. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Harrogate Town win: 58% at kick-off, 94% now
  13. 32′Harrogate Town score on 32′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  14. 35′We said Harrogate Town at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  15. 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Harrogate Town 3–0 Sutton Utd
  16. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Harrogate Town win: 58% at kick-off, 99% now
  17. 36′Harrogate Town find the net on 35′. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  18. 45′SECOND HALF Harrogate Town 3–0 Sutton Utd
  19. 49′HALF-TIME Harrogate Town 3–0 Sutton Utd
  20. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sutton Utd · On: S. Folarin · Off: D. Ogbonna
  21. 51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sutton Utd · On: B. Njoku · Off: T. Babalola
  22. 51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sutton Utd · On: B. Amartey · Off: D. Urpens
  23. 55′We said Harrogate Town at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  24. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sutton Utd · On: B. Topalloj · Off: J. Moore-Taylor
  25. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Sutton Utd · On: O. Mussa · Off: C. Bell
  26. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Harrogate Town · On: E. Taylor · Off: L. Payne
  27. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Harrogate Town · On: S. McCoulsky · Off: B. Dolaghan
  28. 74′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  29. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Harrogate Town 3–1 Sutton Utd
  30. 75′A goal for Sutton Utd on 74′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  31. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Harrogate Town · On: C. McGuckin · Off: J. Hmami
  32. 78′B. Brookes scores for Sutton Utd on 75′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  33. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Harrogate Town
  34. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Sutton Utd
  35. 96′3–1 at the end. Our 58% on Harrogate Town comes in. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  36. FTFULL TIME Harrogate Town 3–1 Sutton Utd
  37. FTHarrogate Town 3–1 Sutton Utd · Harrogate Town win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Harrogate Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Harrogate Town 58%, draw 21%, Sutton Utd 20%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Harrogate Town v Sutton UtdBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Harrogate Town win58%
Draw21%
Sutton Utd win20%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 14

VenueExercise Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Harrogate Town

Sutton Utd

4Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · the English FA Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Harrogate Town13+1228
13Sutton Utd13−418

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · harrogate town winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
58% The market56%
Us58%
Market56%

We make Harrogate Town a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.0–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Harrogate Town v Sutton Utd2.02 – 1.10
Form · last six in National League this season · since 15 SeptW4 D0 L2 · W1 D3 L2
Table places · points 28 v 182 v 13
The market · Harrogate Town win56% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 12:13
Our probability · Harrogate Town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Harrogate Town win58%56%+2
Draw21%25%−4
Sutton Utd win20%20%0
Over 2.5 goals60%51%+9
Both teams to score57%52%+5
Over 1.5 goals81%74%+7
Over 3.5 goals38%31%+7
Harrogate Town or draw80%80%0
Harrogate Town clean sheet34%––
Sutton Utd clean sheet14%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%
0123450 4.8 4.8 2.7 1 8.9 9.8 5.3 2 8.9 9.6 5.3 3 6.0 6.5 3.6 4 3.1 3.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Harrogate Town down, Sutton Utd across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.14
Over 2.53 of 7
Both scored3 of 7
Last meetingsHAR 2–2 SUT · SUT 1–2 HAR · HAR 0–1 SUT · SUT 2–1 HAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League this season · since 15 Sept

HARROGATE TOWN

LLWWWW1–2 · 1–4 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–0

SUTTON UTD

WDDLDL2–1 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Boreham Wood13+2135
2Harrogate Town13+1228
3Southend13+1227
4Yeovil Town13+1725
5Worthing13+924
6Altrincham13+124
7AFC Fylde13+623
8Barrow13+621
9AFC Hornchurch13−421
10FC Halifax Town13+720
11Kidderminster Harriers13+320
12Aldershot Town13+218
13Sutton Utd13−418
14Carlisle13+317
15Woking13015
16Forest Green12−315
17Eastleigh13−615
18Tamworth13−914
19Wealdstone13−712
20Hartlepool13−712
21Boston United13−812
22Scunthorpe12−610
23Solihull Moors13−227
24Gateshead13−234

The competition's standings before kick-off.