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Harrogate Town v Sutton Utd
Harrogate Town
Sutton UtdNational League · SAT 24 OCT · Exercise Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Harrogate Town win at 58%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Harrogate Town 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–22–20
- 1′KICK-OFF Harrogate Town v Sutton Utd
- 29′We said Harrogate Town at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–14–6
- 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Harrogate Town 1–0 Sutton Utd
- 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Harrogate Town win: 58% at kick-off, 80% now
- 30′A goal for Harrogate Town on 30′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–14–6
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 80–14–6
- 30′SUBSTITUTION · 27' Harrogate Town · On: G. Thomson · Off: W. McGowan
- 31′We said Harrogate Town at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
- 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Harrogate Town 2–0 Sutton Utd
- 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Harrogate Town win: 58% at kick-off, 94% now
- 32′Harrogate Town score on 32′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
- 35′We said Harrogate Town at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
- 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Harrogate Town 3–0 Sutton Utd
- 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Harrogate Town win: 58% at kick-off, 99% now
- 36′Harrogate Town find the net on 35′. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
- 45′SECOND HALF Harrogate Town 3–0 Sutton Utd
- 49′HALF-TIME Harrogate Town 3–0 Sutton Utd
- 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sutton Utd · On: S. Folarin · Off: D. Ogbonna
- 51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sutton Utd · On: B. Njoku · Off: T. Babalola
- 51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sutton Utd · On: B. Amartey · Off: D. Urpens
- 55′We said Harrogate Town at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sutton Utd · On: B. Topalloj · Off: J. Moore-Taylor
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Sutton Utd · On: O. Mussa · Off: C. Bell
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Harrogate Town · On: E. Taylor · Off: L. Payne
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Harrogate Town · On: S. McCoulsky · Off: B. Dolaghan
- 74′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
- 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Harrogate Town 3–1 Sutton Utd
- 75′A goal for Sutton Utd on 74′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Harrogate Town · On: C. McGuckin · Off: J. Hmami
- 78′B. Brookes scores for Sutton Utd on 75′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
- 85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Harrogate Town
- 86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Sutton Utd
- 96′3–1 at the end. Our 58% on Harrogate Town comes in. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Harrogate Town 3–1 Sutton Utd
- FTHarrogate Town 3–1 Sutton Utd · Harrogate Town win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Harrogate Town are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Harrogate Town 58%, draw 21%, Sutton Utd 20%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 57%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Harrogate Town win58%
Sutton Utd win20%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30
RoundMatchday 14
VenueExercise Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Harrogate TownMIN
Sutton UtdEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Harrogate Town
Sutton Utd
Last match: 20 Oct · the English FA Cup
Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Harrogate Town a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.0–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harrogate Town win | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Draw | 21% | 25% | −4 |
| Sutton Utd win | 20% | 20% | 0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 51% | +9 |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 52% | +5 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 74% | +7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 31% | +7 |
| Harrogate Town or draw | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Harrogate Town clean sheet | 34% | – | – |
| Sutton Utd clean sheet | 14% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
7 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in National League this season · since 15 Sept
HARROGATE TOWN
SUTTON UTD
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 13 | +21 | 35 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 13 | +12 | 28 |
| 3 | Southend | 13 | +12 | 27 |
| 4 | Yeovil Town | 13 | +17 | 25 |
| 5 | Worthing | 13 | +9 | 24 |
| 6 | Altrincham | 13 | +1 | 24 |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 13 | +6 | 23 |
| 8 | Barrow | 13 | +6 | 21 |
| 9 | AFC Hornchurch | 13 | −4 | 21 |
| 10 | FC Halifax Town | 13 | +7 | 20 |
| 11 | Kidderminster Harriers | 13 | +3 | 20 |
| 12 | Aldershot Town | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 | Sutton Utd | 13 | −4 | 18 |
| 14 | Carlisle | 13 | +3 | 17 |
| 15 | Woking | 13 | 0 | 15 |
| 16 | Forest Green | 12 | −3 | 15 |
| 17 | Eastleigh | 13 | −6 | 15 |
| 18 | Tamworth | 13 | −9 | 14 |
| 19 | Wealdstone | 13 | −7 | 12 |
| 20 | Hartlepool | 13 | −7 | 12 |
| 21 | Boston United | 13 | −8 | 12 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 12 | −6 | 10 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 13 | −22 | 7 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 13 | −23 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Boreham Wood
Southend
Yeovil Town
Worthing
Altrincham
AFC Fylde
Barrow
AFC Hornchurch
FC Halifax Town
Kidderminster Harriers
Aldershot Town
Carlisle
Woking
Forest Green
Eastleigh
Tamworth
Wealdstone
Hartlepool
Boston United
Scunthorpe
Solihull Moors
Gateshead