Gateshead v Tamworth prediction · National League

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Close to call, with Tamworth just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Gateshead 37%, draw 23%, Tamworth 41%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Gateshead v TamworthBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · postponed, not graded

Gateshead win37%

Draw23%

Tamworth win41%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

VenueGateshead International Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gateshead

Tamworth

3Days since last match6

Last match: 20 Oct · the English FA Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

4Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
18	Tamworth	13	−9	14
24	Gateshead	13	−23	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tamworth winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · postponed, not graded

41% The market57%

Us41%

~~Market~~57%

We make Tamworth a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gateshead v Tamworth~~1.62 – 1.72

~~Form · last six in National League this season · since 15 Sept~~W0 D0 L6 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 4 v 14~~24 v 18

~~The market · Tamworth win~~57% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tamworth win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gateshead win	37%	21%	+16
Draw	23%	23%	0
Tamworth win	41%	57%	−16
Over 2.5 goals	64%	62%	+2
Both teams to score	65%	61%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	84%	82%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	43%	41%	+2
Gateshead or draw	59%	43%	+16
Gateshead clean sheet	18%	–	–
Tamworth clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 3.9 6.1 5.3 3.0 1 5.8 9.9 8.3 4.8 2.1 2 4.7 7.9 6.6 3.8 3 2.6 4.3 3.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gateshead down, Tamworth across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,892 National League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.6% of games this season, across 155 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gateshead at home: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Tamworth away: 1.17 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Gateshead, 1.72 for Tamworth. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~TAM 3–1 GAT · GAT 2–1 TAM · GAT 0–2 TAM · TAM 2–1 GAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League this season · since 15 Sept

GATESHEAD

LLLLLL0–1 · 1–6 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–4

TAMWORTH

LWLWWL1–3 · 2–1 · 1–5 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	13	+21	35
2	Harrogate Town	13	+12	28
3	Southend	13	+12	27
4	Yeovil Town	13	+17	25
5	Worthing	13	+9	24
6	Altrincham	13	+1	24
7	AFC Fylde	13	+6	23
8	Barrow	13	+6	21
9	AFC Hornchurch	13	−4	21
10	FC Halifax Town	13	+7	20
11	Kidderminster Harriers	13	+3	20
12	Aldershot Town	13	+2	18
13	Sutton Utd	13	−4	18
14	Carlisle	13	+3	17
15	Woking	13	0	15
16	Forest Green	12	−3	15
17	Eastleigh	13	−6	15
18	Tamworth	13	−9	14
19	Wealdstone	13	−7	12
20	Hartlepool	13	−7	12
21	Boston United	13	−8	12
22	Scunthorpe	12	−6	10
23	Solihull Moors	13	−22	7
24	Gateshead	13	−23	4