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Forest Green v Hartlepool

Forest Green

2–4Full time

Hartlepool

National League · SAT 10 OCT · The New Lawn

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Forest Green 2–4 Hartlepool FOREST GREEN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Forest Green win~~57%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.026

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.009

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Forest Green win at 57%.
2′Much as we predicted: Forest Green was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–24–19
42′We said Forest Green at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 45%. 0–0 · 45–36–19
44′We said Forest Green at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–38–18
45′We said Forest Green at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–28–56
45′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 16–28–56
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Hartlepool win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Forest Green win 16%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Forest Green win: 57% at kick-off, 45% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Forest Green win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Hartlepool win 19%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Forest Green win: 57% at kick-off, 16% now
45′SECOND HALF Forest Green 0–1 Hartlepool
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Forest Green
47′J. Hugill scores for Hartlepool on 45′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 16–28–56
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Forest Green 0–2 Hartlepool · J. Hugill
47′⚽ GOAL · 48' Forest Green 0–2 Hartlepool
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Forest Green
53′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Forest Green · On: D. Mellor · Off: J. Marquez
54′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Forest Green · On: D. Mellor · Off: J. Marquez
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Forest Green 0–3 Hartlepool · N. Sheron
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Hartlepool · On: J. Nolan · Off: J. Earing
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Hartlepool · On: C. Thornton · Off: L. Charman
56′⚽ GOAL · 57' Forest Green 0–3 Hartlepool
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Forest Green · On: O. Patrick · Off: F. Sass
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Forest Green · On: N. Kengni · Off: K. Kelly
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Forest Green 1–3 Hartlepool · J. Hugill
64′⚽ GOAL · 65' Forest Green 1–3 Hartlepool
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Hartlepool · On: W. Harris · Off: J. Hugill
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Forest Green 1–3 Hartlepool
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Forest Green · On: N. Haughton · Off: T. Campbell
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Forest Green 2–3 Hartlepool · O. Patrick
69′⚽ GOAL · 70' Forest Green 2–3 Hartlepool
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Hartlepool · On: M. Clark · Off: C. Popov
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Hartlepool · On: M. Clark · Off: C. Popov
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Forest Green 2–4 Hartlepool · K. McAllister
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Forest Green 2–4 Hartlepool
95′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Hartlepool
FTFULL TIME Forest Green 2–4 Hartlepool
FTForest Green 2–4 Hartlepool · Forest Green win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Forest Green win57%

Draw24%

Hartlepool win20%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:30

Venue · The New Lawn

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Forest Green

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Ross

29 K. Abrefa

24 T. McIntyre

5 K. Ajayi

27 F. Sass

4 J. Clarke

6 T. Campbell

7 K. McAllister

25 K. Kelly

20 S. Etaluku

19 J. Marquez

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · L. McNicholas

2 · T. Pemberton

8 · N. Haughton

3 · N. Kengni

9 · D. Mellor

14 · O. Patrick

26 · F. Mabete

Hartlepool

Formation not confirmed

53 M. Thompson

12 N. Eccleston

14 N. Sheron

6 R. McNally

4 J. Hunter

19 C. Popov

42 C. Deeming

51 J. Earing

7 B. Ilunga

9 J. Hugill

11 L. Charman

Coach · –

Substitutes

32 · N. Fisher

10 · W. Harris

15 · C. Penman

21 · C. Thornton

17 · J. Nolan

3 · M. Clark

30 · T. Bondo

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Forest Green

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Ross

29 K. Abrefa

24 T. McIntyre

5 K. Ajayi

27 F. Sass

4 J. Clarke

6 T. Campbell

7 K. McAllister

25 K. Kelly

20 S. Etaluku

19 J. Marquez

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · L. McNicholas

2 · T. Pemberton

8 · N. Haughton

3 · N. Kengni

9 · D. Mellor

14 · O. Patrick

26 · F. Mabete

Hartlepool

Formation not confirmed

53 M. Thompson

12 N. Eccleston

14 N. Sheron

6 R. McNally

4 J. Hunter

19 C. Popov

42 C. Deeming

51 J. Earing

7 B. Ilunga

9 J. Hugill

11 L. Charman

Coach · –

Substitutes

32 · N. Fisher

10 · W. Harris

15 · C. Penman

21 · C. Thornton

17 · J. Nolan

3 · M. Clark

30 · T. Bondo

Our number · forest green winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

57% The market57%

Us57%

~~Market~~57%

We make Forest Green a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · forest green win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 56% to 57% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Forest Green win	57%	57%	0
Draw	24%	23%	+1
Hartlepool win	20%	20%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	49%	60%	−10
Both teams to score	49%	58%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	74%	81%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	28%	39%	−11
Forest Green or draw	80%	80%	+1
Forest Green clean sheet	40%	–	–
Hartlepool clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.1%

0123450 7.4 6.3 3.0 1 12.1 11.2 5.0 2 10.6 9.5 4.3 3 6.2 5.6 2.5 4 2.8 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Forest Green down, Hartlepool across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,881 National League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 144 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.75 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Forest Green at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Hartlepool away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Forest Green, 0.91 for Hartlepool. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~HAR 2–1 FOR · FOR 1–0 HAR · HAR 1–1 FOR · FOR 1–0 HAR

Form · last six in National League

FOREST GREEN

WWDLDD1–0 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 3–3 · 1–1

HARTLEPOOL

LLLLLL0–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	13	+21	35
2	Harrogate Town	12	+11	25
3	Southend	12	+11	24
4	Yeovil Town	12	+11	22
5	Worthing	12	+4	21
6	Altrincham	12	−1	21
7	AFC Fylde	12	+4	20
8	Kidderminster Harriers	12	+3	19
9	Barrow	12	+5	18
10	Aldershot Town	12	+4	18
11	Sutton Utd	13	−4	18
12	AFC Hornchurch	12	−6	18
13	FC Halifax Town	12	+4	17
14	Carlisle	12	+3	16
15	Woking	12	+1	15
16	Forest Green	11	−1	15
17	Eastleigh	12	−4	15
18	Tamworth	12	−8	14
19	Wealdstone	12	−1	12
20	Boston United	12	−7	12
21	Scunthorpe	11	−4	10
22	Hartlepool	12	−9	9
23	Solihull Moors	12	−17	7
24	Gateshead	12	−20	4