Forest Green v Eastleigh prediction · National League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Forest GreenDrawEastleigh

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Forest Green 59%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Forest Green are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Forest Green 59%, draw 22%, Eastleigh 20%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Forest Green v EastleighBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Forest Green win59%

Draw22%

Eastleigh win20%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 15

VenueThe New Lawn

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Forest Green

Eastleigh

8Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the English FA Cup

Last match: 24 Oct · the English National League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Eastleigh	14	−4	18
17	Forest Green	12	−3	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · forest green winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Forest Green a 59% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Forest Green v Eastleigh~~1.98 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in National League this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 18~~17 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Forest Green win	59%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Eastleigh win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Forest Green or draw	80%	–	–
Forest Green clean sheet	36%	–	–
Eastleigh clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 5.2 5.1 2.7 1 9.6 10.1 5.2 2 9.5 9.7 5.0 3 6.2 6.4 3.3 4 3.1 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Forest Green down, Eastleigh across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,892 National League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.6% of games this season, across 155 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Forest Green at home: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Eastleigh away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.98 goals for Forest Green, 1.04 for Eastleigh. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~EAS 2–4 FOR · FOR 1–0 EAS · FOR 2–1 EAS · EAS 1–3 FOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League this season · since 12 Sept

FOREST GREEN

WDLDDL4–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 2–4

EASTLEIGH

WLDLLW1–0 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	13	+21	35
2	Harrogate Town	14	+14	31
3	Southend	13	+12	27
4	Yeovil Town	13	+17	25
5	Worthing	13	+9	24
6	Altrincham	13	+1	24
7	AFC Fylde	13	+6	23
8	Barrow	13	+6	21
9	AFC Hornchurch	13	−4	21
10	FC Halifax Town	13	+7	20
11	Kidderminster Harriers	13	+3	20
12	Aldershot Town	13	+2	18
13	Eastleigh	14	−4	18
14	Sutton Utd	14	−6	18
15	Carlisle	13	+3	17
16	Woking	13	0	15
17	Forest Green	12	−3	15
18	Tamworth	13	−9	14
19	Wealdstone	13	−7	12
20	Hartlepool	13	−7	12
21	Boston United	14	−10	12
22	Scunthorpe	12	−6	10
23	Solihull Moors	13	−22	7
24	Gateshead	13	−23	4