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FC Halifax Town v Gateshead

FC Halifax Town

4–1Full time

Gateshead

National League · SAT 10 OCT · The Shay

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

FC Halifax Town 4–1 Gateshead FC HALIFAX TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Halifax Town win~~58%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.263

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.161

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Halifax Town win at 58%.
4′Much as we predicted: FC Halifax Town was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–23–19
4′KICK-OFF FC Halifax Town v Gateshead
26′A goal for Gateshead on 26′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 52–28–20
27′⚽ GOAL · 26' FC Halifax Town 0–1 Gateshead
31′We said FC Halifax Town at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–27–49
31′🟨 YELLOW · 29' T. Trusty · FC Halifax Town
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' FC Halifax Town win: 58% at kick-off, 23% now
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Gateshead win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was FC Halifax Town win 23%)
37′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 21–28–51
37′SUBSTITUTION · 32' FC Halifax Town · On: C. Douglas · Off: T. McDermott
41′We said FC Halifax Town at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–28–53
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' FC Halifax Town win: 58% at kick-off, 18% now
46′HALF-TIME FC Halifax Town 0–1 Gateshead
46′SECOND HALF FC Halifax Town 0–1 Gateshead
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' FC Halifax Town 1–1 Gateshead
64′⚽ GOAL · 65' FC Halifax Town 2–1 Gateshead
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' FC Halifax Town 2–1 Gateshead · R. Conte
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' FC Halifax Town · On: D. Kawa · Off: C. Allen
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' FC Halifax Town · On: A. Morgan-Smith · Off: C. Carty
76′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Gateshead · On: B. Chadwick · Off: S. Bowen
76′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Gateshead · On: L. Supyk · Off: F. Issaka
82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Gateshead · On: H. Chapman · Off: M. Spellman
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' FC Halifax Town 3–1 Gateshead · C. Carty
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' FC Halifax Town 3–1 Gateshead
86′⚽ GOAL · 84' FC Halifax Town 3–1 Gateshead
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' FC Halifax Town 4–1 Gateshead · B. Tollitt
93′⚽ GOAL · 94' FC Halifax Town 4–1 Gateshead
FTFULL TIME FC Halifax Town 4–1 Gateshead
FTFC Halifax Town 4–1 Gateshead · FC Halifax Town win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FC Halifax Town win58%

Draw22%

Gateshead win20%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · The Shay

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

FC Halifax Town

Formation not confirmed

33 T. Grant

2 M. Bardell

8 W. Flint

5 S. Hobson

3 R. Conte

24 T. McDermott

30 C. Johnson

20 T. Trusty

17 B. Tollitt

27 C. Allen

9 C. Carty

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · S. Johnson

7 · O. Bray

14 · A. Morgan-Smith

23 · D. Crowe

11 · C. Douglas

22 · D. Kawa

4 · W. Hugill

Gateshead

Formation not confirmed

12 P. Jameson

3 D. Ferguson

28 H. Holgate

5 A. Lankshear

4 J. Home

8 S. Bowen

25 A. McCalmont

20 J. Fenton

21 M. Spellman

7 J. Hiwula

29 F. Issaka

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · R. Leach

2 · T. Lavery

6 · J. Robinson

23 · B. Chadwick

19 · L. Supyk

27 · D. Eguaibor

32 · H. Chapman

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC Halifax Town

Formation not confirmed

33 T. Grant

2 M. Bardell

8 W. Flint

5 S. Hobson

3 R. Conte

24 T. McDermott

30 C. Johnson

20 T. Trusty

17 B. Tollitt

27 C. Allen

9 C. Carty

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · S. Johnson

7 · O. Bray

14 · A. Morgan-Smith

23 · D. Crowe

11 · C. Douglas

22 · D. Kawa

4 · W. Hugill

Gateshead

Formation not confirmed

12 P. Jameson

3 D. Ferguson

28 H. Holgate

5 A. Lankshear

4 J. Home

8 S. Bowen

25 A. McCalmont

20 J. Fenton

21 M. Spellman

7 J. Hiwula

29 F. Issaka

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · R. Leach

2 · T. Lavery

6 · J. Robinson

23 · B. Chadwick

19 · L. Supyk

27 · D. Eguaibor

32 · H. Chapman

Our number · fc halifax town winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

58% The market68%

Us58%

~~Market~~68%

We make FC Halifax Town a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc halifax town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 66% to 67% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Halifax Town win	58%	68%	−9
Draw	22%	20%	+3
Gateshead win	20%	13%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	55%	58%	−3
Both teams to score	53%	50%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	33%	36%	−3
FC Halifax Town or draw	80%	87%	−7
FC Halifax Town clean sheet	37%	–	–
Gateshead clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.9 5.5 2.8 1 10.4 10.5 5.2 2 9.9 9.7 4.8 3 6.3 6.1 3.0 4 3.1 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Halifax Town down, Gateshead across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,881 National League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 144 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Halifax Town at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Gateshead away: 0.33 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for FC Halifax Town, 1.00 for Gateshead. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~FCH 1–2 GAT · GAT 1–2 FCH · GAT 1–3 FCH · FCH 1–1 GAT

Form · last six in National League

FC HALIFAX TOWN

WWDLDW3–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–0

GATESHEAD

LLLLLL0–4 · 0–1 · 1–6 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	13	+21	35
2	Harrogate Town	12	+11	25
3	Southend	12	+11	24
4	Yeovil Town	12	+11	22
5	Worthing	12	+4	21
6	Altrincham	12	−1	21
7	AFC Fylde	12	+4	20
8	Kidderminster Harriers	12	+3	19
9	Barrow	12	+5	18
10	Aldershot Town	12	+4	18
11	Sutton Utd	13	−4	18
12	AFC Hornchurch	12	−6	18
13	FC Halifax Town	12	+4	17
14	Carlisle	12	+3	16
15	Woking	12	+1	15
16	Forest Green	11	−1	15
17	Eastleigh	12	−4	15
18	Tamworth	12	−8	14
19	Wealdstone	12	−1	12
20	Boston United	12	−7	12
21	Scunthorpe	11	−4	10
22	Hartlepool	12	−9	9
23	Solihull Moors	12	−17	7
24	Gateshead	12	−20	4