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Carlisle v Kidderminster Harriers
National League · SAT 10 OCT · Brunton Park
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Carlisle win at 53%.
- 1′KICK-OFF Carlisle v Kidderminster Harriers
- 2′Little has changed for our model: Carlisle 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–25–22
- 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Carlisle win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
- 45′SECOND HALF Carlisle 0–0 Kidderminster Harriers
- 46′We said Carlisle at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–39–20
- 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kidderminster Harriers · On: M. Brogan · Off: B. Crompton
- 50′We said Carlisle at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–41–20
- 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Carlisle win 38%)
- 56′Goalless on 56′ when we expected about 2.7 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 36–46–18
- 57′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Kidderminster Harriers · On: L. Giles · Off: O. Evans
- 59′We said Carlisle at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–48–18
- 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Carlisle win: 53% at kick-off, 33% now
- 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Carlisle · On: S. Wearne · Off: T. Jenks
- 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Carlisle · On: M. Obiero · Off: R. Galvin
- 66′We said Carlisle at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–16
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Kidderminster Harriers · On: C. Mahoney · Off: C. Dolan
- 72′We said Carlisle at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–63–13
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Carlisle · On: T. Anderson · Off: J. Ellis
- 78′We said Carlisle at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–72–10
- 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Carlisle win: 53% at kick-off, 18% now
- 82′We said Carlisle at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–80–7
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Carlisle · On: C. Whelan · Off: D. Ajiboye
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Carlisle win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
- 82′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Kidderminster Harriers
- 84′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Kidderminster Harriers
- 86′We said Carlisle at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–0 · 7–89–4
- 88′We said Carlisle at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
- 89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Carlisle
- 90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' C. Harries · Kidderminster Harriers
- 90′PENALTY MISSED · 91' Carlisle
- 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Carlisle win: 53% at kick-off, 0% now
- 91′R. Linney scores for Carlisle on 90′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 0–100–0
- 94′0–0 at the end. Our 53% on Carlisle misses, and the record keeps it. 0–0 · 0–100–0
- FTFULL TIME Carlisle 0–0 Kidderminster Harriers
- FTCarlisle 0–0 Kidderminster Harriers · Carlisle win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
Match updates
Recorded match details below.
Timeline
Events will appear when the match starts.
Pre-match prediction
Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15
Match information
SAT 10 OCT · 12:30
Venue · Brunton Park
The game so far
Recorded statisticsMatch statistics
Match statistics are not available yet.
Players on the pitch
Recorded line-upsLine-ups
Carlisle
Formation not confirmed
1 A. Desbois
17 L. Duru
18 J. Ellis
5 M. Feeney
15 B. Nicholson
12 R. Galvin
30 T. Jenks
4 H. Bunker
6 M. Azeez
10 R. Linney
7 D. Ajiboye
Coach · –
Substitutes
16 · A. Mair
2 · K. Richardson
3 · C. Harper
8 · C. Whelan
19 · M. Obiero
20 · S. Wearne
31 · T. Anderson
Kidderminster Harriers
Formation not confirmed
1 J. Wint
4 C. Harries
6 R. Faakye
24 O. Evans
8 B. Crompton
14 Z. Brown
26 D. Davis
33 R. Devine
10 C. Dolan
20 C. Hargreaves
9 L. Walker
Coach · –
Substitutes
13 · J. Bishop
3 · L. Giles
5 · A. MacDonald
7 · M. Brogan
11 · C. Mahoney
17 · E. Moore
28 · C. Stewart
Match statistics
Match statistics are not available yet.
Line-ups
Carlisle
Formation not confirmed
1 A. Desbois
17 L. Duru
18 J. Ellis
5 M. Feeney
15 B. Nicholson
12 R. Galvin
30 T. Jenks
4 H. Bunker
6 M. Azeez
10 R. Linney
7 D. Ajiboye
Coach · –
Substitutes
16 · A. Mair
2 · K. Richardson
3 · C. Harper
8 · C. Whelan
19 · M. Obiero
20 · S. Wearne
31 · T. Anderson
Kidderminster Harriers
Formation not confirmed
1 J. Wint
4 C. Harries
6 R. Faakye
24 O. Evans
8 B. Crompton
14 Z. Brown
26 D. Davis
33 R. Devine
10 C. Dolan
20 C. Hargreaves
9 L. Walker
Coach · –
Substitutes
13 · J. Bishop
3 · L. Giles
5 · A. MacDonald
7 · M. Brogan
11 · C. Mahoney
17 · E. Moore
28 · C. Stewart
We make Carlisle a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle win | 53% | 62% | −9 |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | +3 |
| Kidderminster Harriers win | 22% | 17% | +6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 59% | −9 |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 55% | −5 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 80% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 38% | −10 |
| Carlisle or draw | 78% | 83% | −6 |
| Carlisle clean sheet | 38% | – | – |
| Kidderminster Harriers clean sheet | 19% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
0 meetings since 2021No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.
Form · last six in National League
CARLISLE
KIDDERMINSTER HARRIERS
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 13 | +21 | 35 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 12 | +11 | 25 |
| 3 | Southend | 12 | +11 | 24 |
| 4 | Yeovil Town | 12 | +11 | 22 |
| 5 | Worthing | 12 | +4 | 21 |
| 6 | Altrincham | 12 | −1 | 21 |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 12 | +4 | 20 |
| 8 | Kidderminster Harriers | 12 | +3 | 19 |
| 9 | Barrow | 12 | +5 | 18 |
| 10 | Aldershot Town | 12 | +4 | 18 |
| 11 | Sutton Utd | 13 | −4 | 18 |
| 12 | AFC Hornchurch | 12 | −6 | 18 |
| 13 | FC Halifax Town | 12 | +4 | 17 |
| 14 | Carlisle | 12 | +3 | 16 |
| 15 | Woking | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 16 | Forest Green | 11 | −1 | 15 |
| 17 | Eastleigh | 12 | −4 | 15 |
| 18 | Tamworth | 12 | −8 | 14 |
| 19 | Wealdstone | 12 | −1 | 12 |
| 20 | Boston United | 12 | −7 | 12 |
| 21 | Scunthorpe | 11 | −4 | 10 |
| 22 | Hartlepool | 12 | −9 | 9 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 12 | −17 | 7 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 12 | −20 | 4 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.
Boreham Wood
Harrogate Town
Southend
Yeovil Town
Worthing
Altrincham
AFC Fylde
Barrow
Aldershot Town
Sutton Utd
AFC Hornchurch
FC Halifax Town
Woking
Forest Green
Eastleigh
Tamworth
Wealdstone
Boston United
Scunthorpe
Hartlepool
Solihull Moors
Gateshead