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Model 1.1
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Carlisle v Kidderminster Harriers

Carlisle
0–0Full time
Kidderminster Harriers

National League · SAT 10 OCT · Brunton Park

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:10
Carlisle 0–0 Kidderminster Harriers CARLISLE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Carlisle win53%
The market said62%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.904
The market’s Brier score1.026

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Carlisle win at 53%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Carlisle v Kidderminster Harriers
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Carlisle 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–25–22
  4. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Carlisle win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
  5. 45′SECOND HALF Carlisle 0–0 Kidderminster Harriers
  6. 46′We said Carlisle at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–39–20
  7. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kidderminster Harriers · On: M. Brogan · Off: B. Crompton
  8. 50′We said Carlisle at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–41–20
  9. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Carlisle win 38%)
  10. 56′Goalless on 56′ when we expected about 2.7 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 36–46–18
  11. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Kidderminster Harriers · On: L. Giles · Off: O. Evans
  12. 59′We said Carlisle at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–48–18
  13. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Carlisle win: 53% at kick-off, 33% now
  14. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Carlisle · On: S. Wearne · Off: T. Jenks
  15. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Carlisle · On: M. Obiero · Off: R. Galvin
  16. 66′We said Carlisle at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–16
  17. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Kidderminster Harriers · On: C. Mahoney · Off: C. Dolan
  18. 72′We said Carlisle at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–63–13
  19. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Carlisle · On: T. Anderson · Off: J. Ellis
  20. 78′We said Carlisle at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–72–10
  21. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Carlisle win: 53% at kick-off, 18% now
  22. 82′We said Carlisle at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–80–7
  23. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Carlisle · On: C. Whelan · Off: D. Ajiboye
  24. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Carlisle win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
  25. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Kidderminster Harriers
  26. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Kidderminster Harriers
  27. 86′We said Carlisle at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–0 · 7–89–4
  28. 88′We said Carlisle at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
  29. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Carlisle
  30. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' C. Harries · Kidderminster Harriers
  31. 90′PENALTY MISSED · 91' Carlisle
  32. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Carlisle win: 53% at kick-off, 0% now
  33. 91′R. Linney scores for Carlisle on 90′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 0–100–0
  34. 94′0–0 at the end. Our 53% on Carlisle misses, and the record keeps it. 0–0 · 0–100–0
  35. FTFULL TIME Carlisle 0–0 Kidderminster Harriers
  36. FTCarlisle 0–0 Kidderminster Harriers · Carlisle win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Carlisle win53%
Draw24%
Kidderminster Harriers win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:30

Venue · Brunton Park

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Carlisle

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Desbois

17 L. Duru

18 J. Ellis

5 M. Feeney

15 B. Nicholson

12 R. Galvin

30 T. Jenks

4 H. Bunker

6 M. Azeez

10 R. Linney

7 D. Ajiboye

Coach · –

Substitutes

16 · A. Mair

2 · K. Richardson

3 · C. Harper

8 · C. Whelan

19 · M. Obiero

20 · S. Wearne

31 · T. Anderson

Kidderminster Harriers

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Wint

4 C. Harries

6 R. Faakye

24 O. Evans

8 B. Crompton

14 Z. Brown

26 D. Davis

33 R. Devine

10 C. Dolan

20 C. Hargreaves

9 L. Walker

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · J. Bishop

3 · L. Giles

5 · A. MacDonald

7 · M. Brogan

11 · C. Mahoney

17 · E. Moore

28 · C. Stewart

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Carlisle

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Desbois

17 L. Duru

18 J. Ellis

5 M. Feeney

15 B. Nicholson

12 R. Galvin

30 T. Jenks

4 H. Bunker

6 M. Azeez

10 R. Linney

7 D. Ajiboye

Coach · –

Substitutes

16 · A. Mair

2 · K. Richardson

3 · C. Harper

8 · C. Whelan

19 · M. Obiero

20 · S. Wearne

31 · T. Anderson

Kidderminster Harriers

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Wint

4 C. Harries

6 R. Faakye

24 O. Evans

8 B. Crompton

14 Z. Brown

26 D. Davis

33 R. Devine

10 C. Dolan

20 C. Hargreaves

9 L. Walker

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · J. Bishop

3 · L. Giles

5 · A. MacDonald

7 · M. Brogan

11 · C. Mahoney

17 · E. Moore

28 · C. Stewart

Our number · carlisle winPublished 10 Oct 12:19
53% The market62%
Us53%
Market62%

We make Carlisle a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65% 9 OCT 06:1710 OCT 03:53
Our probability · carlisle win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Carlisle win53%62%−9
Draw24%22%+3
Kidderminster Harriers win22%17%+6
Over 2.5 goals50%59%−9
Both teams to score51%55%−5
Over 1.5 goals74%80%−5
Over 3.5 goals28%38%−10
Carlisle or draw78%83%−6
Carlisle clean sheet38%––
Kidderminster Harriers clean sheet19%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.6%
0123450 7.4 6.8 3.4 1 11.6 11.4 5.6 2 9.7 9.4 4.6 3 5.5 5.3 2.6 4 2.4 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Carlisle down, Kidderminster Harriers across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in National League

CARLISLE

DDLLWW2–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–5 · 2–0 · 3–1

KIDDERMINSTER HARRIERS

WWDLLD2–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Boreham Wood13+2135
2Harrogate Town12+1125
3Southend12+1124
4Yeovil Town12+1122
5Worthing12+421
6Altrincham12−121
7AFC Fylde12+420
8Kidderminster Harriers12+319
9Barrow12+518
10Aldershot Town12+418
11Sutton Utd13−418
12AFC Hornchurch12−618
13FC Halifax Town12+417
14Carlisle12+316
15Woking12+115
16Forest Green11−115
17Eastleigh12−415
18Tamworth12−814
19Wealdstone12−112
20Boston United12−712
21Scunthorpe11−410
22Hartlepool12−99
23Solihull Moors12−177
24Gateshead12−204

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.