Carlisle v Harrogate Town prediction · National League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CarlisleDrawHarrogate Town

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Carlisle 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Carlisle are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Carlisle 48%, draw 22%, Harrogate Town 29%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Carlisle v Harrogate TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Carlisle win48%

Draw22%

Harrogate Town win29%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 15

VenueBrunton Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Carlisle

Harrogate Town

4Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · the English National League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Harrogate Town	14	+14	31
15	Carlisle	13	+3	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · carlisle winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Carlisle a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Carlisle v Harrogate Town~~1.88 – 1.41

~~Form · last six in National League this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 17 v 31~~15 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Carlisle win

Published at 49%, 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Carlisle win	48%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Harrogate Town win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Carlisle or draw	71%	–	–
Carlisle clean sheet	25%	–	–
Harrogate Town clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.0 5.3 3.8 1 7.0 9.9 6.9 3.3 2 6.6 9.0 6.3 3.0 3 4.1 5.7 4.0 4 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Carlisle down, Harrogate Town across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,902 National League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.4% of games this season, across 165 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.11 goals a meeting; 2 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Carlisle at home: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Harrogate Town away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.88 goals for Carlisle, 1.41 for Harrogate Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.11

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 9

~~Both scored~~2 of 9

~~Last meetings~~HAR 1–0 CAR · CAR 1–1 HAR · CAR 2–0 HAR · HAR 1–0 CAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League this season · since 19 Sept

CARLISLE

LLWWDW0–1 · 2–5 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 2–1

HARROGATE TOWN

LWWWWW1–4 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	13	+21	35
2	Harrogate Town	14	+14	31
3	Southend	13	+12	27
4	Yeovil Town	13	+17	25
5	Worthing	13	+9	24
6	Altrincham	13	+1	24
7	AFC Fylde	13	+6	23
8	Barrow	13	+6	21
9	AFC Hornchurch	13	−4	21
10	FC Halifax Town	13	+7	20
11	Kidderminster Harriers	13	+3	20
12	Aldershot Town	13	+2	18
13	Eastleigh	14	−4	18
14	Sutton Utd	14	−6	18
15	Carlisle	13	+3	17
16	Woking	13	0	15
17	Forest Green	12	−3	15
18	Tamworth	13	−9	14
19	Wealdstone	13	−7	12
20	Hartlepool	13	−7	12
21	Boston United	14	−10	12
22	Scunthorpe	12	−6	10
23	Solihull Moors	13	−22	7
24	Gateshead	13	−23	4