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Boston United v Southend

Boston United

1–2Full time

Southend

National League · SAT 10 OCT · Jakemans Community Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Boston United 1–2 Southend SOUTHEND WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Southend win~~48%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.400

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.346

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Southend win at 48%.
2′Boston United ahead on 1′ through O. Bostock. 1–0. 1–0 · 52–23–26
2′KICK-OFF Boston United v Southend
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Southend win: 48% at kick-off, 26% now
7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Boston United win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Southend win 26%)
10′We said Southend at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 53–24–24
15′A goal for Southend on 16′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 27–27–46
15′⚽ GOAL · 16' Boston United 1–1 Southend
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Southend win: 48% at kick-off, 46% now
15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Southend win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Boston United win 27%)
20′Little has changed for our model: Southend 48% before kick-off, 45% now. 1–1 · 27–28–45
41′SUBSTITUTION · 38' Southend · On: Massiah-Edwards · Off: P. Omochere
46′SECOND HALF Boston United 1–1 Southend
47′HALF-TIME Boston United 1–1 Southend
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Southend · On: L. Twamley · Off: H. Cardwell
48′🟨 YELLOW · 47' D. Oldaker · Southend
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Southend
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Boston United
68′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Boston United
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Southend · On: H. Taylor · Off: B. Goodliffe
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Southend · On: S. Austin · Off: D. Oldaker
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Boston United · On: L. N. John-Lewis · Off: C. McBride
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Boston United · On: L. Wheeldon · Off: G. Gent
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Boston United · On: G. Holohan · Off: N. Pozo
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Boston United 1–2 Southend · P. Omochere
93′⚽ GOAL · 94' Boston United 1–2 Southend
FTFULL TIME Boston United 1–2 Southend
FTBoston United 1–2 Southend · Southend win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Boston United win27%

Draw24%

Southend win48%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Jakemans Community Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Boston United

Formation not confirmed

13 L. Chadwick

4 C. Teale

20 J. Rooney

6 N. Canavan

3 L. Shipley

15 O. Bostock

16 L. Sutton

30 N. Pozo

17 G. Gent

9 T. Cursons

10 C. McBride

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · L. Faxon

7 · J. Holmes

8 · G. Holohan

14 · L. N. John-Lewis

18 · L. Wheeldon

23 · J. Grimes

28 · T. Agyemang

Southend

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Duncan

2 V. Daley-Campbell

6 B. Goodliffe

20 D. Cox

3 K. McAdam

4 A. Hartigan

8 D. Oldaker

23 J. Popoola

14 P. Omochere

19 L. Chambers-Parillon

9 H. Cardwell

Coach · Kieron Dyer

Substitutes

30 · J. Barrett

7 · S. Kamara

10 · S. Austin

11 · L. Twamley

16 · H. Taylor

17 · Massiah-Edwards

18 · S. Keogh

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Boston United

Formation not confirmed

13 L. Chadwick

4 C. Teale

20 J. Rooney

6 N. Canavan

3 L. Shipley

15 O. Bostock

16 L. Sutton

30 N. Pozo

17 G. Gent

9 T. Cursons

10 C. McBride

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · L. Faxon

7 · J. Holmes

8 · G. Holohan

14 · L. N. John-Lewis

18 · L. Wheeldon

23 · J. Grimes

28 · T. Agyemang

Southend

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Duncan

2 V. Daley-Campbell

6 B. Goodliffe

20 D. Cox

3 K. McAdam

4 A. Hartigan

8 D. Oldaker

23 J. Popoola

14 P. Omochere

19 L. Chambers-Parillon

9 H. Cardwell

Coach · Kieron Dyer

Substitutes

30 · J. Barrett

7 · S. Kamara

10 · S. Austin

11 · L. Twamley

16 · H. Taylor

17 · Massiah-Edwards

18 · S. Keogh

Our number · southend winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

48% The market52%

Us48%

~~Market~~52%

We make Southend a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · southend win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 51% to 52% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Boston United win	27%	25%	+3
Draw	24%	23%	+1
Southend win	48%	52%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	55%	66%	−11
Both teams to score	56%	65%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	78%	84%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	33%	46%	−13
Boston United or draw	52%	48%	+4
Boston United clean sheet	19%	–	–
Southend clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.9 9.3 7.9 4.4 1 6.7 11.3 9.3 5.2 2.3 2 4.1 6.7 5.5 3.1 3 2.7 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Boston United down, Southend across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,881 National League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 144 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Boston United at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Southend away: 2.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Boston United, 1.69 for Southend. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BOS 3–3 SOU · SOU 1–1 BOS · BOS 3–0 SOU · SOU 2–0 BOS

Form · last six in National League

BOSTON UNITED

LDWLDL1–3 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–6

SOUTHEND

DWWLDW2–2 · 3–1 · 6–1 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	13	+21	35
2	Harrogate Town	12	+11	25
3	Southend	12	+11	24
4	Yeovil Town	12	+11	22
5	Worthing	12	+4	21
6	Altrincham	12	−1	21
7	AFC Fylde	12	+4	20
8	Kidderminster Harriers	12	+3	19
9	Barrow	12	+5	18
10	Aldershot Town	12	+4	18
11	Sutton Utd	13	−4	18
12	AFC Hornchurch	12	−6	18
13	FC Halifax Town	12	+4	17
14	Carlisle	12	+3	16
15	Woking	12	+1	15
16	Forest Green	11	−1	15
17	Eastleigh	12	−4	15
18	Tamworth	12	−8	14
19	Wealdstone	12	−1	12
20	Boston United	12	−7	12
21	Scunthorpe	11	−4	10
22	Hartlepool	12	−9	9
23	Solihull Moors	12	−17	7
24	Gateshead	12	−20	4