Boston United v Gateshead prediction · National League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Boston UnitedDrawGateshead

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Boston United 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Boston United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Boston United 53%, draw 23%, Gateshead 25%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Boston United v GatesheadBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Boston United win53%

Draw23%

Gateshead win25%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 15

VenueJakemans Community Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Boston United

Gateshead

3Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the English National League

Last match: 20 Oct · the English FA Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
21	Boston United	14	−10	12
24	Gateshead	13	−23	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · boston united winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

53% The market62%

Us53%

~~Market~~62%

We make Boston United a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Boston United v Gateshead~~1.89 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in National League this season · since 16 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 12 v 4~~21 v 24

~~The market · Boston United win~~62% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Boston United win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Boston United win	53%	62%	−9
Draw	23%	22%	+1
Gateshead win	25%	17%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	60%	59%	+1
Both teams to score	59%	56%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	80%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	38%	39%	−1
Boston United or draw	75%	83%	−8
Boston United clean sheet	30%	–	–
Gateshead clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 4.8 5.5 3.4 1 8.4 10.3 6.2 2.6 2 7.9 9.4 5.8 2.4 3 5.0 5.9 3.6 4 2.4 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Boston United down, Gateshead across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,902 National League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.4% of games this season, across 165 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Boston United at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Gateshead away: 0.33 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for Boston United, 1.22 for Gateshead. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~BOS 1–0 GAT · GAT 1–3 BOS · BOS 2–1 GAT · GAT 1–3 BOS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League this season · since 16 Sept

BOSTON UNITED

WLDLLL3–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–6 · 1–2 · 2–4

GATESHEAD

LLLLLL0–1 · 1–6 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	14	+25	38
2	Harrogate Town	14	+14	31
3	Southend	14	+12	28
4	Worthing	14	+10	27
5	Altrincham	14	+2	27
6	Yeovil Town	14	+16	25
7	AFC Fylde	14	+2	23
8	FC Halifax Town	14	+7	21
9	Barrow	13	+6	21
10	AFC Hornchurch	14	−5	21
11	Carlisle	14	+4	20
12	Kidderminster Harriers	14	+2	20
13	Woking	14	+1	18
14	Aldershot Town	14	+1	18
15	Eastleigh	14	−4	18
16	Sutton Utd	14	−6	18
17	Forest Green	12	−3	15
18	Wealdstone	14	−6	15
19	Hartlepool	14	−6	15
20	Tamworth	13	−9	14
21	Boston United	14	−10	12
22	Scunthorpe	13	−7	10
23	Solihull Moors	14	−23	7
24	Gateshead	13	−23	4