Boreham Wood v Hartlepool prediction · National League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Boreham WoodDrawHartlepool

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Boreham Wood 66%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Boreham Wood are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Boreham Wood 66%, draw 19%, Hartlepool 15%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Boreham Wood v HartlepoolBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Boreham Wood win66%

Draw19%

Hartlepool win15%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 16

VenueMeadow Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Boreham Wood

Hartlepool

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the English National League

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · boreham wood winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

66% The market–

Us66%

We make Boreham Wood a 66% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Boreham Wood v Hartlepool~~2.24 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in National League this season · since 19 Sept~~W6 D0 L0 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 38 v 15~~1 v 19

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Boreham Wood win	66%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Hartlepool win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Boreham Wood or draw	85%	–	–
Boreham Wood clean sheet	40%	–	–
Hartlepool clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.4%

0123450 4.5 4.0 1 9.4 8.9 4.1 2 10.4 9.5 4.4 3 7.7 7.0 3.3 4 4.4 4.0 5 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Boreham Wood down, Hartlepool across0–5 goals a side shown (96.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,902 National League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.4% of games this season, across 165 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Boreham Wood at home: 3.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Hartlepool away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.24 goals for Boreham Wood, 0.93 for Hartlepool. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BOR 3–0 HAR · HAR 0–0 BOR · HAR 3–1 BOR · BOR 1–0 HAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League this season · since 19 Sept

BOREHAM WOOD

WWWWWW4–1 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 4–0

HARTLEPOOL

LLLLWW1–3 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 4–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	14	+25	38
2	Harrogate Town	14	+14	31
3	Southend	14	+12	28
4	Worthing	14	+10	27
5	Altrincham	14	+2	27
6	Yeovil Town	14	+16	25
7	AFC Fylde	14	+2	23
8	FC Halifax Town	14	+7	21
9	Barrow	13	+6	21
10	AFC Hornchurch	14	−5	21
11	Carlisle	14	+4	20
12	Kidderminster Harriers	14	+2	20
13	Woking	14	+1	18
14	Aldershot Town	14	+1	18
15	Eastleigh	14	−4	18
16	Sutton Utd	14	−6	18
17	Forest Green	12	−3	15
18	Wealdstone	14	−6	15
19	Hartlepool	14	−6	15
20	Tamworth	13	−9	14
21	Boston United	14	−10	12
22	Scunthorpe	13	−7	10
23	Solihull Moors	14	−23	7
24	Gateshead	13	−23	4