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Boreham Wood v AFC Fylde

Boreham Wood

4–0Full time

AFC Fylde

National League · SAT 24 OCT · Meadow Park

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Boreham Wood 4–0 AFC Fylde BOREHAM WOOD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Boreham Wood win~~64%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.193

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.167

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Boreham Wood win at 64%.
1′Much as we predicted: Boreham Wood was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 64–19–17
1′KICK-OFF Boreham Wood v AFC Fylde
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Boreham Wood 1–0 AFC Fylde
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Boreham Wood win: 64% at kick-off, 82% now
31′We published Boreham Wood at 64%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–13–5
31′A goal for Boreham Wood on 31′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–13–5
32′Goals are coming at about the 3.6 we expected. 1–0 · 82–13–5
34′PENALTY MISSED · 34' Boreham Wood
39′We published Boreham Wood at 64%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Boreham Wood 2–0 AFC Fylde
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Boreham Wood win: 64% at kick-off, 95% now
40′Boreham Wood score on 40′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Boreham Wood 3–0 AFC Fylde
44′Boreham Wood find the net on 43′. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
45′SECOND HALF Boreham Wood 3–0 AFC Fylde
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' AFC Fylde · On: L. McCormick · Off: G. Olley
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' AFC Fylde · On: K. Malcolm · Off: D. Mayor
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' AFC Fylde · On: T. Upton · Off: E. Mitchell
49′HALF-TIME Boreham Wood 3–0 AFC Fylde
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' AFC Fylde · On: C. Main · Off: M. Matthews Lewis
54′We published Boreham Wood at 64%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
54′4 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
54′A goal for Boreham Wood on 54′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Boreham Wood 4–0 AFC Fylde
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' AFC Fylde
68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Boreham Wood · On: D. Cashman · Off: B. Whitfield
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Boreham Wood
79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Boreham Wood · On: W. Wright · Off: J. Bird
80′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Boreham Wood · On: C. Wilkinson · Off: R. Booty
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' AFC Fylde
91′SUBSTITUTION · 83' AFC Fylde · On: J. Morris · Off: L. Thomas
91′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Boreham Wood · On: M. Rush · Off: T. Allarakhia
91′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Boreham Wood · On: M. Marshall-Miranda · Off: Z. Brunt
93′Full time, 4–0. We called Boreham Wood at 64% — that one lands. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Boreham Wood 4–0 AFC Fylde
FTBoreham Wood 4–0 AFC Fylde · Boreham Wood win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Boreham Wood are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Boreham Wood 64%, draw 19%, AFC Fylde 17%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Boreham Wood v AFC FyldeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Boreham Wood win64%

Draw19%

AFC Fylde win17%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 14

VenueMeadow Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Boreham Wood

AFC Fylde

4Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · National League Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · boreham wood winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

64% The market67%

Us64%

~~Market~~67%

We make Boreham Wood a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Boreham Wood v AFC Fylde~~2.40 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in National League this season · since 15 Sept~~W6 D0 L0 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 35 v 23~~1 v 7

~~The market · Boreham Wood win~~67% · ours 64%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Boreham Wood win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Boreham Wood win	64%	67%	−3
Draw	19%	18%	+1
AFC Fylde win	17%	15%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	68%	72%	−4
Both teams to score	62%	63%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	86%	87%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	47%	53%	−6
Boreham Wood or draw	83%	85%	−2
Boreham Wood clean sheet	32%	–	–
AFC Fylde clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.2%

0123450 3.2 3.4 2.0 1 6.9 8.1 4.6 2 8.2 9.2 5.3 2.1 3 6.4 7.3 4.2 4 3.9 4.4 2.5 5 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Boreham Wood down, AFC Fylde across0–5 goals a side shown (95.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,892 National League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.6% of games this season, across 155 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Boreham Wood at home: 2.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). AFC Fylde away: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.40 goals for Boreham Wood, 1.16 for AFC Fylde. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BOR 4–0 AFC · AFC 2–2 BOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League this season · since 15 Sept

BOREHAM WOOD

WWWWWW2–1 · 4–1 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 2–0

AFC FYLDE

WLWLLW2–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	13	+21	35
2	Harrogate Town	13	+12	28
3	Southend	13	+12	27
4	Yeovil Town	13	+17	25
5	Worthing	13	+9	24
6	Altrincham	13	+1	24
7	AFC Fylde	13	+6	23
8	Barrow	13	+6	21
9	AFC Hornchurch	13	−4	21
10	FC Halifax Town	13	+7	20
11	Kidderminster Harriers	13	+3	20
12	Aldershot Town	13	+2	18
13	Sutton Utd	13	−4	18
14	Carlisle	13	+3	17
15	Woking	13	0	15
16	Forest Green	12	−3	15
17	Eastleigh	13	−6	15
18	Tamworth	13	−9	14
19	Wealdstone	13	−7	12
20	Hartlepool	13	−7	12
21	Boston United	13	−8	12
22	Scunthorpe	12	−6	10
23	Solihull Moors	13	−22	7
24	Gateshead	13	−23	4