Barrow v Forest Green prediction · National League

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · abandoned

Barrow are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Barrow 40%, draw 25%, Forest Green 35%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Barrow v Forest GreenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · abandoned, not graded

Barrow win40%

Draw25%

Forest Green win35%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 14

VenueHolker Street

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Barrow

Forest Green

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the English FA Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Barrow	13	+6	21
16	Forest Green	12	−3	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · barrow winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · abandoned, not graded

40% The market48%

Us40%

~~Market~~48%

We make Barrow a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Barrow v Forest Green~~1.51 – 1.39

~~Form · last six in National League this season · since 12 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 21 v 15~~8 v 16

~~The market · Barrow win~~48% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Barrow win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Barrow win	40%	48%	−8
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Forest Green win	35%	26%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	55%	57%	−2
Both teams to score	58%	60%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	78%	0
Over 3.5 goals	33%	37%	−4
Barrow or draw	65%	74%	−9
Barrow clean sheet	26%	–	–
Forest Green clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 5.9 7.6 5.3 2.5 1 8.3 11.5 7.8 3.7 2 6.3 8.5 5.8 2.7 3 3.2 4.3 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Barrow down, Forest Green across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,892 National League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.6% of games this season, across 155 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Barrow at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Forest Green away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Barrow, 1.39 for Forest Green. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BAR 1–2 FOR · FOR 0–2 BAR · BAR 4–0 FOR · FOR 2–0 BAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League this season · since 12 Sept

BARROW

LWWWWW0–1 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

FOREST GREEN

WDLDDL4–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	13	+21	35
2	Harrogate Town	13	+12	28
3	Southend	13	+12	27
4	Yeovil Town	13	+17	25
5	Worthing	13	+9	24
6	Altrincham	13	+1	24
7	AFC Fylde	13	+6	23
8	Barrow	13	+6	21
9	AFC Hornchurch	13	−4	21
10	FC Halifax Town	13	+7	20
11	Kidderminster Harriers	13	+3	20
12	Aldershot Town	13	+2	18
13	Sutton Utd	13	−4	18
14	Carlisle	13	+3	17
15	Woking	13	0	15
16	Forest Green	12	−3	15
17	Eastleigh	13	−6	15
18	Tamworth	13	−9	14
19	Wealdstone	13	−7	12
20	Hartlepool	13	−7	12
21	Boston United	13	−8	12
22	Scunthorpe	12	−6	10
23	Solihull Moors	13	−22	7
24	Gateshead	13	−23	4