Barrow v Eastleigh prediction · National League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BarrowDrawEastleigh

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Barrow 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Barrow are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Barrow 55%, draw 23%, Eastleigh 23%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Barrow v EastleighBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Barrow win55%

Draw23%

Eastleigh win23%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 16

VenueHolker Street

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Barrow

Eastleigh

11Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · the English FA Cup

Last match: 24 Oct · the English National League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Barrow	13	+6	21
15	Eastleigh	14	−4	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · barrow winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Barrow a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Barrow v Eastleigh~~1.89 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in National League this season · since 15 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 21 v 18~~9 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Barrow win	55%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Eastleigh win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Barrow or draw	77%	–	–
Barrow clean sheet	33%	–	–
Eastleigh clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 5.2 5.5 3.2 1 9.2 10.4 5.8 2.2 2 8.6 9.6 5.4 2.1 3 5.4 6.0 3.4 4 2.6 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Barrow down, Eastleigh across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,902 National League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.4% of games this season, across 165 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Barrow at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Eastleigh away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for Barrow, 1.14 for Eastleigh. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League this season · since 15 Sept

BARROW

LWWWWW0–1 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

EASTLEIGH

WLDLLW1–0 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	14	+25	38
2	Harrogate Town	14	+14	31
3	Southend	14	+12	28
4	Worthing	14	+10	27
5	Altrincham	14	+2	27
6	Yeovil Town	14	+16	25
7	AFC Fylde	14	+2	23
8	FC Halifax Town	14	+7	21
9	Barrow	13	+6	21
10	AFC Hornchurch	14	−5	21
11	Carlisle	14	+4	20
12	Kidderminster Harriers	14	+2	20
13	Woking	14	+1	18
14	Aldershot Town	14	+1	18
15	Eastleigh	14	−4	18
16	Sutton Utd	14	−6	18
17	Forest Green	12	−3	15
18	Wealdstone	14	−6	15
19	Hartlepool	14	−6	15
20	Tamworth	13	−9	14
21	Boston United	14	−10	12
22	Scunthorpe	13	−7	10
23	Solihull Moors	14	−23	7
24	Gateshead	13	−23	4