Altrincham v Carlisle prediction · National League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AltrinchamDrawCarlisle

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Carlisle 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Carlisle are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Altrincham 35%, draw 25%, Carlisle 41%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Altrincham v CarlisleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Altrincham win35%

Draw25%

Carlisle win41%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 16

VenueMoss Lane

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Altrincham

Carlisle

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the English National League

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Altrincham	14	+2	27
11	Carlisle	14	+4	20

In the news

from the pressAll ›

BBC to show Cray Wanderers v Stockport & Altrincham v Notts CountyBBC Sport · 22 Oct 17:31 · Cray Wanderers, Altrincham, Notts County

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · carlisle winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Carlisle a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Altrincham v Carlisle~~1.41 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in National League this season · since 19 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 27 v 20~~5 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Altrincham win	35%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Carlisle win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Altrincham or draw	59%	–	–
Altrincham clean sheet	22%	–	–
Carlisle clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.5 8.0 6.2 3.2 1 7.3 11.3 8.6 4.5 2 5.2 7.8 6.0 3.1 3 2.5 3.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Altrincham down, Carlisle across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,902 National League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.4% of games this season, across 165 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Altrincham at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Carlisle away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Altrincham, 1.55 for Carlisle. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CAR 3–1 ALT · ALT 1–2 CAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League this season · since 19 Sept

ALTRINCHAM

WWWLWW2–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 2–1

CARLISLE

LLWWDW0–1 · 2–5 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	14	+25	38
2	Harrogate Town	14	+14	31
3	Southend	14	+12	28
4	Worthing	14	+10	27
5	Altrincham	14	+2	27
6	Yeovil Town	14	+16	25
7	AFC Fylde	14	+2	23
8	FC Halifax Town	14	+7	21
9	Barrow	13	+6	21
10	AFC Hornchurch	14	−5	21
11	Carlisle	14	+4	20
12	Kidderminster Harriers	14	+2	20
13	Woking	14	+1	18
14	Aldershot Town	14	+1	18
15	Eastleigh	14	−4	18
16	Sutton Utd	14	−6	18
17	Forest Green	12	−3	15
18	Wealdstone	14	−6	15
19	Hartlepool	14	−6	15
20	Tamworth	13	−9	14
21	Boston United	14	−10	12
22	Scunthorpe	13	−7	10
23	Solihull Moors	14	−23	7
24	Gateshead	13	−23	4