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Aldershot Town v Wealdstone

Aldershot Town

0–1Full time

Wealdstone

National League · SAT 24 OCT · EBB Stadium at Recreation Ground

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Aldershot Town 0–1 Wealdstone ALDERSHOT TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aldershot Town win~~47%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.746

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.695

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aldershot Town win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Aldershot Town was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–23–31
1′KICK-OFF Aldershot Town v Wealdstone
22′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Wealdstone
31′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Aldershot Town
45′SECOND HALF Aldershot Town 0–0 Wealdstone
46′We said Aldershot Town at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
46′HALF-TIME Aldershot Town 0–0 Wealdstone
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Aldershot Town 0–1 Wealdstone
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Aldershot Town win: 47% at kick-off, 14% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Wealdstone win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Aldershot Town win 38%)
47′Wealdstone score on 47′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 14–24–62
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Aldershot Town · On: H. Sandah · Off: M. Dinanga
51′46′: O. Olomola on the scoresheet for Wealdstone, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 12–24–64
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Wealdstone
59′We said Aldershot Town at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Wealdstone · On: D. Kadji · Off: A. Henry
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Aldershot Town win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Wealdstone
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Wealdstone
72′We said Aldershot Town at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Aldershot Town · On: M. Wyllie · Off: B. Peart
82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Wealdstone · On: J. Newton · Off: M. Oni
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Wealdstone · On: F. Okenabirhie · Off: L. Norris
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Wealdstone · On: C. McAvoy · Off: A. Kanu
89′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Aldershot Town · On: T. Abrahams · Off: A. Lewis
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Wealdstone
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Aldershot Town
93′Full time, 0–1. We called Aldershot Town at 47% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–1 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Aldershot Town 0–1 Wealdstone
FTAldershot Town 0–1 Wealdstone · Aldershot Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aldershot Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aldershot Town 47%, draw 23%, Wealdstone 31%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Aldershot Town v WealdstoneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Aldershot Town win47%

Draw23%

Wealdstone win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 14

VenueEBB Stadium at Recreation Ground

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aldershot Town

Wealdstone

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the English FA Cup

Last match: 20 Oct · National League Cup

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Aldershot Town	13	+2	18
19	Wealdstone	13	−7	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aldershot town winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

47% The market41%

Us47%

~~Market~~41%

We make Aldershot Town a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aldershot Town v Wealdstone~~1.87 – 1.49

~~Form · last six in National League this season · since 15 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 18 v 12~~12 v 19

~~The market · Aldershot Town win~~41% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Aldershot Town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aldershot Town win	47%	41%	+6
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Wealdstone win	31%	32%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	65%	58%	+7
Both teams to score	65%	61%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	85%	79%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	43%	38%	+5
Aldershot Town or draw	69%	68%	+1
Aldershot Town clean sheet	23%	–	–
Wealdstone clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 3.8 5.2 3.9 1 6.5 9.7 7.1 3.5 2 6.1 8.9 6.5 3.3 3 3.8 5.5 4.1 2.0 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aldershot Town down, Wealdstone across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,892 National League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.6% of games this season, across 155 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.60 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aldershot Town at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Wealdstone away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.87 goals for Aldershot Town, 1.49 for Wealdstone. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~WEA 3–0 ALD · ALD 4–1 WEA · WEA 1–3 ALD · ALD 3–1 WEA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League this season · since 15 Sept

ALDERSHOT TOWN

DLWLLL1–1 · 0–1 · 5–1 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–3

WEALDSTONE

LLWDLL0–1 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–6

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	13	+21	35
2	Harrogate Town	13	+12	28
3	Southend	13	+12	27
4	Yeovil Town	13	+17	25
5	Worthing	13	+9	24
6	Altrincham	13	+1	24
7	AFC Fylde	13	+6	23
8	Barrow	13	+6	21
9	AFC Hornchurch	13	−4	21
10	FC Halifax Town	13	+7	20
11	Kidderminster Harriers	13	+3	20
12	Aldershot Town	13	+2	18
13	Sutton Utd	13	−4	18
14	Carlisle	13	+3	17
15	Woking	13	0	15
16	Forest Green	12	−3	15
17	Eastleigh	13	−6	15
18	Tamworth	13	−9	14
19	Wealdstone	13	−7	12
20	Hartlepool	13	−7	12
21	Boston United	13	−8	12
22	Scunthorpe	12	−6	10
23	Solihull Moors	13	−22	7
24	Gateshead	13	−23	4