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AFC Hornchurch v Eastleigh

AFC Hornchurch

2–0Full time

Eastleigh

National League · SAT 10 OCT · Hornchurch Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

AFC Hornchurch 2–0 Eastleigh AFC HORNCHURCH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AFC Hornchurch win~~45%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.449

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.452

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AFC Hornchurch win at 45%.
3′KICK-OFF AFC Hornchurch v Eastleigh
11′Little has changed for our model: AFC Hornchurch 45% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–29
25′22′ and it is 1–0: AFC Hornchurch have scored. 1–0 · 72–19–10
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' AFC Hornchurch 1–0 Eastleigh
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' AFC Hornchurch win: 45% at kick-off, 72% now
27′⚽ GOAL · 22' AFC Hornchurch 1–0 Eastleigh
31′25′ and it is 1–0: D. Poleon on the scoresheet for AFC Hornchurch. 1–0 · 72–19–9
37′We said AFC Hornchurch at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–19–8
37′SUBSTITUTION · 28' Eastleigh · On: W. Randall · Off: J. Cousins
37′🟨 YELLOW · 32' AFC Hornchurch
38′🟨 YELLOW · 36' H. Hearn · AFC Hornchurch
40′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 73–19–7
46′SECOND HALF AFC Hornchurch 1–0 Eastleigh
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' AFC Hornchurch · On: M. Weston · Off: H. Sandat
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' AFC Hornchurch · On: R. Loft · Off: H. Hearn
49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' AFC Hornchurch
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' AFC Hornchurch 2–0 Eastleigh · D. Poleon
61′⚽ GOAL · 62' AFC Hornchurch 2–0 Eastleigh
69′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Eastleigh · On: D. Rankine · Off: O. Hawkins
69′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Eastleigh · On: S. Bamey · Off: R. Johnson
70′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Eastleigh · On: D. Rankine · Off: O. Hawkins
70′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Eastleigh · On: S. Bamey · Off: R. Johnson
71′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Eastleigh · On: D. Rankine · Off: O. Hawkins
71′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Eastleigh · On: S. Bamey · Off: R. Johnson
72′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Eastleigh · On: D. Rankine · Off: O. Hawkins
72′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Eastleigh · On: S. Bamey · Off: R. Johnson
75′SUBSTITUTION · 70' AFC Hornchurch · On: A. Balanta · Off: T. Wraight
75′SUBSTITUTION · 70' AFC Hornchurch · On: J. Walker · Off: D. Poleon
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Eastleigh
76′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Eastleigh
79′🟨 YELLOW · 80' AFC Hornchurch
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Eastleigh
91′🟨 YELLOW · 87' A. Blair · Eastleigh
FTFULL TIME AFC Hornchurch 2–0 Eastleigh
FTAFC Hornchurch 2–0 Eastleigh · AFC Hornchurch win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

AFC Hornchurch win45%

Draw25%

Eastleigh win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Hornchurch Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

AFC Hornchurch

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Nasta

14 C. Pegrum

22 F. Edwards

6 T. Dallison

5 J. Baldwin

2 W. Greenidge

27 A. Massey

11 H. Sandat

8 T. Wraight

9 H. Hearn

21 D. Poleon

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · R. Byrne

4 · J. Powell

7 · J. Walker

10 · A. Balanta

15 · N. Ferguson

18 · M. Weston

30 · R. Loft

Eastleigh

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Townsend

2 J. Caprice

5 I. Bakare

18 T. Dobson-Ventura

27 R. Johnson

4 H. Sidwell

24 J. Cousins

11 A. Blair

8 J. Lundstram

7 M. Dickov

12 O. Hawkins

Coach · –

Substitutes

15 · J. Jeffries

10 · W. Randall

17 · D. Rankine

22 · S. Bamey

25 · C. Killick

30 · C. Underhill

35 · I. ihnatenko

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

AFC Hornchurch

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Nasta

14 C. Pegrum

22 F. Edwards

6 T. Dallison

5 J. Baldwin

2 W. Greenidge

27 A. Massey

11 H. Sandat

8 T. Wraight

9 H. Hearn

21 D. Poleon

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · R. Byrne

4 · J. Powell

7 · J. Walker

10 · A. Balanta

15 · N. Ferguson

18 · M. Weston

30 · R. Loft

Eastleigh

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Townsend

2 J. Caprice

5 I. Bakare

18 T. Dobson-Ventura

27 R. Johnson

4 H. Sidwell

24 J. Cousins

11 A. Blair

8 J. Lundstram

7 M. Dickov

12 O. Hawkins

Coach · –

Substitutes

15 · J. Jeffries

10 · W. Randall

17 · D. Rankine

22 · S. Bamey

25 · C. Killick

30 · C. Underhill

35 · I. ihnatenko

Our number · afc hornchurch winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

45% The market45%

Us45%

~~Market~~45%

We make AFC Hornchurch a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AFC Hornchurch win	45%	45%	0
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Eastleigh win	30%	28%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	53%	54%	−1
Both teams to score	56%	58%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	76%	0
Over 3.5 goals	31%	33%	−3
AFC Hornchurch or draw	70%	72%	−1
AFC Hornchurch clean sheet	30%	–	–
Eastleigh clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.5 7.4 4.6 1 9.5 11.7 7.0 2.9 2 7.5 9.0 5.5 2.3 3 4.0 4.8 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AFC Hornchurch down, Eastleigh across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,881 National League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 144 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

AFC Hornchurch at home: 1.40 scored, 0.40 conceded a game (last 5). Eastleigh away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for AFC Hornchurch, 1.23 for Eastleigh. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in National League

AFC HORNCHURCH

LLWLWL0–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 0–3

EASTLEIGH

DLWLDL1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	13	+21	35
2	Harrogate Town	12	+11	25
3	Southend	12	+11	24
4	Yeovil Town	12	+11	22
5	Worthing	12	+4	21
6	Altrincham	12	−1	21
7	AFC Fylde	12	+4	20
8	Kidderminster Harriers	12	+3	19
9	Barrow	12	+5	18
10	Aldershot Town	12	+4	18
11	Sutton Utd	13	−4	18
12	AFC Hornchurch	12	−6	18
13	FC Halifax Town	12	+4	17
14	Carlisle	12	+3	16
15	Woking	12	+1	15
16	Forest Green	11	−1	15
17	Eastleigh	12	−4	15
18	Tamworth	12	−8	14
19	Wealdstone	12	−1	12
20	Boston United	12	−7	12
21	Scunthorpe	11	−4	10
22	Hartlepool	12	−9	9
23	Solihull Moors	12	−17	7
24	Gateshead	12	−20	4