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AFC Fylde v Scunthorpe

AFC Fylde

2–0Full time

Scunthorpe

National League · SAT 10 OCT · Mill Farm

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

AFC Fylde 2–0 Scunthorpe AFC FYLDE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AFC Fylde win~~41%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.523

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.338

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AFC Fylde win at 41%.
4′Much as we predicted: AFC Fylde was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–24–35
4′KICK-OFF AFC Fylde v Scunthorpe
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' AFC Fylde
20′20′ and it is 1–0: AFC Fylde have scored. 1–0 · 66–20–14
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' AFC Fylde 1–0 Scunthorpe
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' AFC Fylde win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
25′We published AFC Fylde at 41%. Our model now makes it 67%. 1–0 · 67–20–13
31′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 67–20–12
45′SECOND HALF AFC Fylde 1–0 Scunthorpe
49′We published AFC Fylde at 41%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
54′🟨 YELLOW · 52' J. Starbuck · Scunthorpe
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' AFC Fylde
64′⚽ GOAL · 66' AFC Fylde 1–0 Scunthorpe
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' AFC Fylde 2–0 Scunthorpe · D. Mayor
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Scunthorpe · On: J. Richards · Off: K. Hurst
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Scunthorpe · On: J. Gale · Off: T. Sellars-Fleming Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Scunthorpe · On: T. Denton · Off: R. Clayton
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Scunthorpe · On: W. Evans · Off: P. Jones
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' AFC Fylde · On: T. Upton · Off: G. Olley
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' AFC Fylde · On: H. Broad · Off: D. Mayor
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Scunthorpe · On: H. Parker · Off: T. Sellars-Fleming
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' AFC Fylde · On: C. Main · Off: M. Matthews Lewis
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' AFC Fylde · On: L. Butterfield · Off: M. Taylor
FTFULL TIME AFC Fylde 2–0 Scunthorpe
FTAFC Fylde 2–0 Scunthorpe · AFC Fylde win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

AFC Fylde win41%

Draw23%

Scunthorpe win35%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Mill Farm

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

AFC Fylde

Formation not confirmed

1 Z. Jones

29 A. Drewe

5 M. Taylor

17 C. Whelan

15 W. Lancaster

6 C. Merrie

28 M. Matthews Lewis

8 T. Whelan

14 G. Olley

10 D. Mayor

7 L. Thomas

Coach · –

Substitutes

25 · P. Boyes

3 · H. Broad

18 · T. Upton

19 · C. Main

22 · J. Morris

26 · L. Butterfield

Scunthorpe

Formation not confirmed

25 M. Campbell

21 J. Starbuck

44 R. Barrows

15 S. Ashbee

30 R. Clayton

14 P. Jones

23 J. Butterfield

17 D. Batty

18 K. Hurst

16 T. Sellars-Fleming

9 J. Norwood

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · L. Jones

5 · W. Evans

10 · L. Brennan

12 · H. Parker

19 · J. Richards

31 · J. Gale

33 · T. Denton

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

AFC Fylde

Formation not confirmed

1 Z. Jones

29 A. Drewe

5 M. Taylor

17 C. Whelan

15 W. Lancaster

6 C. Merrie

28 M. Matthews Lewis

8 T. Whelan

14 G. Olley

10 D. Mayor

7 L. Thomas

Coach · –

Substitutes

25 · P. Boyes

3 · H. Broad

18 · T. Upton

19 · C. Main

22 · J. Morris

26 · L. Butterfield

Scunthorpe

Formation not confirmed

25 M. Campbell

21 J. Starbuck

44 R. Barrows

15 S. Ashbee

30 R. Clayton

14 P. Jones

23 J. Butterfield

17 D. Batty

18 K. Hurst

16 T. Sellars-Fleming

9 J. Norwood

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · L. Jones

5 · W. Evans

10 · L. Brennan

12 · H. Parker

19 · J. Richards

31 · J. Gale

33 · T. Denton

Our number · afc fylde winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

41% The market53%

Us41%

~~Market~~53%

We make AFC Fylde a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.6.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AFC Fylde win	41%	53%	−11
Draw	23%	22%	+1
Scunthorpe win	35%	25%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	63%	70%	−8
Both teams to score	64%	69%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	83%	86%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	41%	51%	−10
AFC Fylde or draw	65%	75%	−10
AFC Fylde clean sheet	22%	–	–
Scunthorpe clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.2 6.0 4.7 2.5 1 6.6 10.2 7.8 4.0 2 5.6 8.4 6.5 3.4 3 3.2 4.8 3.7 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AFC Fylde down, Scunthorpe across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,881 National League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 144 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

AFC Fylde at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Scunthorpe away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for AFC Fylde, 1.55 for Scunthorpe. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in National League

AFC FYLDE

WWLWLL4–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–3

SCUNTHORPE

LWLLWL0–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	13	+21	35
2	Harrogate Town	12	+11	25
3	Southend	12	+11	24
4	Yeovil Town	12	+11	22
5	Worthing	12	+4	21
6	Altrincham	12	−1	21
7	AFC Fylde	12	+4	20
8	Kidderminster Harriers	12	+3	19
9	Barrow	12	+5	18
10	Aldershot Town	12	+4	18
11	Sutton Utd	13	−4	18
12	AFC Hornchurch	12	−6	18
13	FC Halifax Town	12	+4	17
14	Carlisle	12	+3	16
15	Woking	12	+1	15
16	Forest Green	11	−1	15
17	Eastleigh	12	−4	15
18	Tamworth	12	−8	14
19	Wealdstone	12	−1	12
20	Boston United	12	−7	12
21	Scunthorpe	11	−4	10
22	Hartlepool	12	−9	9
23	Solihull Moors	12	−17	7
24	Gateshead	12	−20	4