AFC Fylde v Hartlepool prediction · National League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AFC FyldeDrawHartlepool

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · AFC Fylde 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AFC Fylde are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AFC Fylde 48%, draw 25%, Hartlepool 28%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on AFC Fylde v HartlepoolBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

AFC Fylde win48%

Draw25%

Hartlepool win28%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 15

VenueMill Farm

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AFC Fylde

Hartlepool

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · the English National League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	AFC Fylde	13	+6	23
20	Hartlepool	13	−7	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · afc fylde winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

48% The market54%

Us48%

~~Market~~54%

We make AFC Fylde a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AFC Fylde v Hartlepool~~1.64 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in National League this season · since 19 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 23 v 12~~7 v 20

~~The market · AFC Fylde win~~54% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · AFC Fylde win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AFC Fylde win	48%	54%	−6
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Hartlepool win	28%	22%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
AFC Fylde or draw	72%	78%	−6
AFC Fylde clean sheet	31%	–	–
Hartlepool clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.2 6.9 4.2 1 9.5 11.5 6.8 2.7 2 7.8 9.2 5.5 2.2 3 4.3 5.1 3.0 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AFC Fylde down, Hartlepool across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,892 National League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.6% of games this season, across 155 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AFC Fylde at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Hartlepool away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for AFC Fylde, 1.20 for Hartlepool. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~AFC 2–1 HAR · HAR 2–0 AFC · AFC 2–1 HAR · HAR 3–1 AFC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League this season · since 19 Sept

AFC FYLDE

LWLLWL1–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 0–4

HARTLEPOOL

LLLLWW1–3 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 4–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	13	+21	35
2	Harrogate Town	14	+14	31
3	Southend	13	+12	27
4	Yeovil Town	13	+17	25
5	Worthing	13	+9	24
6	Altrincham	13	+1	24
7	AFC Fylde	13	+6	23
8	Barrow	13	+6	21
9	AFC Hornchurch	13	−4	21
10	FC Halifax Town	13	+7	20
11	Kidderminster Harriers	13	+3	20
12	Aldershot Town	13	+2	18
13	Eastleigh	14	−4	18
14	Sutton Utd	14	−6	18
15	Carlisle	13	+3	17
16	Woking	13	0	15
17	Forest Green	12	−3	15
18	Tamworth	13	−9	14
19	Wealdstone	13	−7	12
20	Hartlepool	13	−7	12
21	Boston United	14	−10	12
22	Scunthorpe	12	−6	10
23	Solihull Moors	13	−22	7
24	Gateshead	13	−23	4