AFC Fylde v AFC Hornchurch prediction · National League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AFC FyldeDrawAFC Hornchurch

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · AFC Fylde 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AFC Fylde are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AFC Fylde 45%, draw 24%, AFC Hornchurch 31%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on AFC Fylde v AFC HornchurchBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

AFC Fylde win45%

Draw24%

AFC Hornchurch win31%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 16

VenueMill Farm

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AFC Fylde

AFC Hornchurch

6Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · the English National League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	AFC Fylde	14	+2	23
10	AFC Hornchurch	14	−5	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · afc fylde winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 25 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make AFC Fylde a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AFC Fylde v AFC Hornchurch~~1.66 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in National League this season · since 19 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 23 v 21~~7 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · AFC Fylde win

Published at 46%, 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AFC Fylde win	45%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
AFC Hornchurch win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
AFC Fylde or draw	69%	–	–
AFC Fylde clean sheet	27%	–	–
AFC Hornchurch clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.5 6.7 4.5 1 8.5 11.1 7.2 3.2 2 7.0 8.9 5.8 2.6 3 3.9 5.0 3.2 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AFC Fylde down, AFC Hornchurch across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,902 National League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.4% of games this season, across 165 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

AFC Fylde at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). AFC Hornchurch away: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for AFC Fylde, 1.31 for AFC Hornchurch. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League this season · since 19 Sept

AFC FYLDE

LWLLWL1–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 0–4

AFC HORNCHURCH

WLWLWL1–0 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Boreham Wood	14	+25	38
2	Harrogate Town	14	+14	31
3	Southend	14	+12	28
4	Worthing	14	+10	27
5	Altrincham	14	+2	27
6	Yeovil Town	14	+16	25
7	AFC Fylde	14	+2	23
8	FC Halifax Town	14	+7	21
9	Barrow	13	+6	21
10	AFC Hornchurch	14	−5	21
11	Carlisle	14	+4	20
12	Kidderminster Harriers	14	+2	20
13	Woking	14	+1	18
14	Aldershot Town	14	+1	18
15	Eastleigh	14	−4	18
16	Sutton Utd	14	−6	18
17	Forest Green	12	−3	15
18	Wealdstone	14	−6	15
19	Hartlepool	14	−6	15
20	Tamworth	13	−9	14
21	Boston United	14	−10	12
22	Scunthorpe	13	−7	10
23	Solihull Moors	14	−23	7
24	Gateshead	13	−23	4