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Weston-super-Mare v Folkestone Invicta

Weston-super-Mare

1–1Full time

Folkestone Invicta

National League - South · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Weston-super-Mare 1–1 Folkestone Invicta WESTON-SUPER-MARE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Weston-super-Mare win~~46%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.853

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.818

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Weston-super-Mare win at 46%.
2′Much as we predicted: Weston-super-Mare was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–26–28
2′KICK-OFF Weston-super-Mare v Folkestone Invicta
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Weston-super-Mare 0–1 Folkestone Invicta
10′⚽ GOAL · 7' Weston-super-Mare 0–1 Folkestone Invicta
24′B. Kelman scores for Folkestone Invicta on 7′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 17–25–58
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Weston-super-Mare win: 46% at kick-off, 17% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Folkestone Invicta win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Weston-super-Mare win 17%)
46′We said Weston-super-Mare at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–25–64
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Weston-super-Mare win: 46% at kick-off, 11% now
46′SECOND HALF Weston-super-Mare 0–1 Folkestone Invicta
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Weston-super-Mare 1–1 Folkestone Invicta · B. Kelman
57′⚽ GOAL · 58' Weston-super-Mare 1–1 Folkestone Invicta
FTFULL TIME Weston-super-Mare 1–1 Folkestone Invicta
FTWeston-super-Mare 1–1 Folkestone Invicta · Weston-super-Mare win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Weston-super-Mare win46%

Draw25%

Folkestone Invicta win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · weston-super-mare winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

46% The market46%

Us46%

~~Market~~46%

We make Weston-super-Mare a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · weston-super-mare win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 48% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Weston-super-Mare win	46%	46%	0
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Folkestone Invicta win	28%	27%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	47%	49%	−2
Both teams to score	51%	53%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	72%	73%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	29%	−3
Weston-super-Mare or draw	72%	73%	−1
Weston-super-Mare clean sheet	34%	–	–
Folkestone Invicta clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.5 8.7 4.6 1 11.6 11.9 6.6 2.5 2 8.3 8.9 4.9 3 4.1 4.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Weston-super-Mare down, Folkestone Invicta across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,749 National League - South matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.3% of games this season, across 116 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Weston-super-Mare at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Folkestone Invicta away: 1.00 scored, 1.40 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Weston-super-Mare, 1.09 for Folkestone Invicta. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in National League - South

WESTON-SUPER-MARE

WDLWWL3–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 2–3

FOLKESTONE INVICTA

WLDLLL2–0 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	10	+7	19
2	Dagenham & Redbridge	10	+3	19
3	Salisbury	10	+11	18
4	Truro City	10	+8	18
5	Billericay Town	10	+7	18
6	Weston-super-Mare	10	+8	17
7	Farnham Town	10	+2	17
8	Dover	10	+1	17
9	Dorking Wanderers	10	+6	16
10	Tonbridge Angels	10	+8	14
11	Maidenhead	10	+1	13
12	Hemel Hempstead Town	10	0	13
13	Torquay	10	−1	13
14	Ebbsfleet United	6	+4	12
15	Folkestone Invicta	10	+3	12
16	Chelmsford City	9	+1	11
17	Horsham	9	−1	11
18	Farnborough	9	−5	11
19	Chesham United	10	−3	10
20	AFC Totton	9	−7	10
21	Braintree	10	−8	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	10	−13	8
23	Walton & Hersham	10	−18	5
24	Slough Town	10	−14	4