Weston-super-Mare v Billericay Town prediction · National League

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · abandoned

Close to call, with Weston-super-Mare just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Weston-super-Mare 40%, draw 24%, Billericay Town 36%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Weston-super-Mare v Billericay TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · abandoned, not graded

Weston-super-Mare win40%

Draw24%

Billericay Town win36%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundNational League South · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Weston-super-Mare

Billericay Town

7Days since last match14

Last match: 17 Oct · National League - South

Last match: 10 Oct · National League - South

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Billericay Town	11	+11	21
8	Weston-super-Mare	12	+3	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · weston-super-mare winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · abandoned, not graded

40% The market43%

Us40%

~~Market~~43%

We make Weston-super-Mare a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Weston-super-Mare v Billericay Town~~1.52 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 18 v 21~~8 v 4

~~The market · Weston-super-Mare win~~43% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Weston-super-Mare win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Weston-super-Mare win	40%	43%	−3
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Billericay Town win	36%	30%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	56%	54%	+2
Both teams to score	58%	58%	0
Over 1.5 goals	78%	76%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	34%	0
Weston-super-Mare or draw	64%	70%	−6
Weston-super-Mare clean sheet	25%	–	–
Billericay Town clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.3 8.0 5.4 2.6 1 8.5 11.0 7.9 3.8 2 6.1 8.4 5.9 2.8 3 3.1 4.3 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Weston-super-Mare down, Billericay Town across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,769 National League - South matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 136 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Weston-super-Mare at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Billericay Town away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Weston-super-Mare, 1.42 for Billericay Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 5 Sept

WESTON-SUPER-MARE

LWWLDL0–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–6

BILLERICAY TOWN

DWDWWW3–3 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 3–0 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	12	+9	25
2	Ebbsfleet United	10	+16	22
3	Salisbury	11	+12	21
4	Billericay Town	11	+11	21
5	Truro City	11	+9	21
6	Tonbridge Angels	12	+10	20
7	Dagenham & Redbridge	12	+1	20
8	Weston-super-Mare	12	+3	18
9	Dover	11	+1	18
10	Dorking Wanderers	11	+6	17
11	Farnham Town	11	+1	17
12	Folkestone Invicta	12	+4	16
13	Torquay	11	+3	16
14	Horsham	12	−1	15
15	Chelmsford City	10	+6	14
16	Hemel Hempstead Town	12	−1	14
17	Farnborough	11	−7	14
18	Maidenhead	12	−1	13
19	Chesham United	11	−8	10
20	Braintree	11	−9	10
21	AFC Totton	12	−14	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	−15	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	−17	8
24	Slough Town	12	−19	4