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Torquay v Slough Town

Torquay

5–1Full time

Slough Town

National League - South · SAT 10 OCT · Plainmoor

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Torquay 5–1 Slough Town TORQUAY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Torquay win~~65%

~~The market said~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.187

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.126

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Torquay win at 65%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Torquay 65% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 65–18–17
2′KICK-OFF Torquay v Slough Town
45′SECOND HALF Torquay 0–0 Slough Town
46′We said Torquay at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 51%. 0–0 · 51–30–18
46′🟥 RED CARD · 46' Slough Town
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Torquay win: 65% at kick-off, 51% now
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Torquay 0–1 Slough Town
59′⚽ GOAL · 60' Torquay 0–1 Slough Town
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Torquay 1–1 Slough Town
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Torquay 1–1 Slough Town
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Torquay 2–1 Slough Town · M. Jay
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Torquay 2–1 Slough Town
73′🟥 RED CARD · 73' Torquay
74′🟥 RED CARD · 74' Torquay
77′🟥 RED CARD · 77' Torquay
80′🟥 RED CARD · 80' Torquay
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Torquay 3–1 Slough Town · C. Morton
86′🟥 RED CARD · 86' Torquay
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Torquay 3–1 Slough Town
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Torquay 4–1 Slough Town · C. Morton
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Torquay 4–1 Slough Town
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Torquay 5–1 Slough Town · J. Beaumont-Clark
92′🟥 RED CARD · 92' Torquay
92′⚽ GOAL · 93' Torquay 5–1 Slough Town
FTFULL TIME Torquay 5–1 Slough Town
FTTorquay 5–1 Slough Town · Torquay win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Torquay win65%

Draw17%

Slough Town win18%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Plainmoor

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · torquay winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

65% The market71%

Us65%

~~Market~~71%

We make Torquay a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · torquay win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 73% to 71% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Torquay win	65%	71%	−6
Draw	17%	17%	+1
Slough Town win	18%	12%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	72%	74%	−2
Both teams to score	65%	62%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	88%	88%	0
Over 3.5 goals	52%	54%	−3
Torquay or draw	82%	88%	−6
Torquay clean sheet	29%	–	–
Slough Town clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.0%

0123450 2.3 3.2 1 6.1 7.2 4.6 2 7.3 9.0 5.6 2.4 3 6.1 7.4 4.6 4 3.8 4.7 2.9 5 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Torquay down, Slough Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,749 National League - South matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.3% of games this season, across 116 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 4.67 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Torquay at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Slough Town away: 1.67 scored, 3.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.52 goals for Torquay, 1.25 for Slough Town. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~4.67

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SLO 1–5 TOR · TOR 4–2 SLO · TOR 2–0 SLO · SLO 2–2 TOR

Form · last six in National League - South

TORQUAY

DLWWDL1–1 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 0–3

SLOUGH TOWN

LLLWLD0–1 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	10	+7	19
2	Dagenham & Redbridge	10	+3	19
3	Salisbury	10	+11	18
4	Truro City	10	+8	18
5	Billericay Town	10	+7	18
6	Weston-super-Mare	10	+8	17
7	Farnham Town	10	+2	17
8	Dover	10	+1	17
9	Dorking Wanderers	10	+6	16
10	Tonbridge Angels	10	+8	14
11	Maidenhead	10	+1	13
12	Hemel Hempstead Town	10	0	13
13	Torquay	10	−1	13
14	Ebbsfleet United	6	+4	12
15	Folkestone Invicta	10	+3	12
16	Chelmsford City	9	+1	11
17	Horsham	9	−1	11
18	Farnborough	9	−5	11
19	Chesham United	10	−3	10
20	AFC Totton	9	−7	10
21	Braintree	10	−8	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	10	−13	8
23	Walton & Hersham	10	−18	5
24	Slough Town	10	−14	4