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Torquay v Maidstone Utd

Torquay

1–1Full time

Maidstone Utd

National League - South · SAT 24 OCT · Plainmoor

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Torquay 1–1 Maidstone Utd TORQUAY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Torquay win~~40%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.864

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.855

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Torquay win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Torquay 40% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–24–36
1′KICK-OFF Torquay v Maidstone Utd
26′We said Torquay at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 66%. 1–0 · 66–21–13
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Torquay 1–0 Maidstone Utd
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Torquay win: 40% at kick-off, 66% now
27′Torquay find the net on 27′. 1–0. 1–0 · 66–21–13
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 67–21–12
33′PENALTY MISSED · 32' Torquay
44′We said Torquay at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Torquay win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
45′SECOND HALF Torquay 1–0 Maidstone Utd
47′HALF-TIME Torquay 1–0 Maidstone Utd
60′We said Torquay at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
70′We said Torquay at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Torquay win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
77′We said Torquay at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
82′We said Torquay at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Torquay win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
83′We said Torquay at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 1–1 · 10–81–9
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Torquay 1–1 Maidstone Utd
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Torquay win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Torquay win 91%)
84′We said Torquay at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–83–8
84′A goal for Maidstone Utd on 84′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 9–83–8
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Torquay win: 40% at kick-off, 9% now
91′We said Torquay at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
96′1–1 at the end. Our 40% on Torquay misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Torquay 1–1 Maidstone Utd
FTTorquay 1–1 Maidstone Utd · Torquay win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Torquay just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Torquay 40%, draw 24%, Maidstone Utd 36%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Torquay v Maidstone UtdBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Torquay win40%

Draw24%

Maidstone Utd win36%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundNational League South · matchday 13

VenuePlainmoor

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Torquay

Maidstone Utd

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · National League - South

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · torquay winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

40% The market45%

Us40%

~~Market~~45%

We make Torquay a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Torquay v Maidstone Utd~~1.48 – 1.41

~~Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 31 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 25~~13 v 1

~~The market · Torquay win~~45% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Torquay win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Torquay win	40%	45%	−5
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Maidstone Utd win	36%	30%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	55%	59%	−4
Both teams to score	58%	61%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	78%	80%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	38%	−5
Torquay or draw	64%	70%	−6
Torquay clean sheet	25%	–	–
Maidstone Utd clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.4 8.2 5.5 2.6 1 8.6 11.2 8.0 3.8 2 6.1 8.4 5.9 2.8 3 3.0 4.2 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Torquay down, Maidstone Utd across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,769 National League - South matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 136 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 1 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Torquay at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Maidstone Utd away: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Torquay, 1.41 for Maidstone Utd. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TOR 1–1 MAI · TOR 0–2 MAI · MAI 1–1 TOR · MAI 1–0 TOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 31 Aug

TORQUAY

LWWDLW0–2 · 3–2 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 5–1

MAIDSTONE UTD

WWLLWW1–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	12	+9	25
2	Ebbsfleet United	10	+16	22
3	Salisbury	11	+12	21
4	Billericay Town	11	+11	21
5	Truro City	11	+9	21
6	Tonbridge Angels	12	+10	20
7	Dagenham & Redbridge	12	+1	20
8	Weston-super-Mare	12	+3	18
9	Dover	11	+1	18
10	Dorking Wanderers	11	+6	17
11	Farnham Town	11	+1	17
12	Folkestone Invicta	12	+4	16
13	Torquay	11	+3	16
14	Horsham	12	−1	15
15	Chelmsford City	10	+6	14
16	Hemel Hempstead Town	12	−1	14
17	Farnborough	11	−7	14
18	Maidenhead	12	−1	13
19	Chesham United	11	−8	10
20	Braintree	11	−9	10
21	AFC Totton	12	−14	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	−15	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	−17	8
24	Slough Town	12	−19	4