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Tonbridge Angels v Hemel Hempstead Town

Tonbridge Angels

1–0Full time

Hemel Hempstead Town

National League - South · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Tonbridge Angels 1–0 Hemel Hempstead Town TONBRIDGE ANGELS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Tonbridge Angels win~~45%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.452

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.490

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tonbridge Angels win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tonbridge Angels 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–28
1′KICK-OFF Tonbridge Angels v Hemel Hempstead Town
6′Little has changed for our model: Tonbridge Angels 45% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–28
24′A goal for Tonbridge Angels on 23′. 0–0 · 41–33–27
24′We said Tonbridge Angels at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–19–8
24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Tonbridge Angels 1–0 Hemel Hempstead Town
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Tonbridge Angels win: 45% at kick-off, 73% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 74–19–7
33′PENALTY MISSED · 33' Hemel Hempstead Town
35′We said Tonbridge Angels at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Tonbridge Angels win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
45′HALF-TIME Tonbridge Angels 1–0 Hemel Hempstead Town
45′SECOND HALF Tonbridge Angels 1–0 Hemel Hempstead Town
58′We said Tonbridge Angels at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
71′We said Tonbridge Angels at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Tonbridge Angels win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
79′We said Tonbridge Angels at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
86′We said Tonbridge Angels at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Tonbridge Angels win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
90′1–0 at the end. Our 45% on Tonbridge Angels comes in. 1–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Tonbridge Angels 1–0 Hemel Hempstead Town
FTTonbridge Angels 1–0 Hemel Hempstead Town · Tonbridge Angels win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tonbridge Angels are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tonbridge Angels 45%, draw 26%, Hemel Hempstead Town 28%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Tonbridge Angels v Hemel Hempstead TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Tonbridge Angels win45%

Draw26%

Hemel Hempstead Town win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundNational League South · matchday 28

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tonbridge Angels

Hemel Hempstead Town

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · National League - South

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Tonbridge Angels	11	+9	17
14	Hemel Hempstead Town	11	0	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tonbridge angels winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

45% The market43%

Us45%

~~Market~~43%

We make Tonbridge Angels a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tonbridge Angels v Hemel Hempstead Town~~1.38 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 31 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 17 v 14~~9 v 14

~~The market · Tonbridge Angels win~~43% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tonbridge Angels win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tonbridge Angels win	45%	43%	+2
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Hemel Hempstead Town win	28%	30%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	43%	55%	−12
Both teams to score	47%	58%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	69%	77%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	22%	34%	−12
Tonbridge Angels or draw	72%	70%	+2
Tonbridge Angels clean sheet	36%	–	–
Hemel Hempstead Town clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.7%

0123450 8.9 9.6 4.8 1 12.7 12.3 6.5 2.3 2 8.5 8.6 4.4 3 4.0 4.0 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tonbridge Angels down, Hemel Hempstead Town across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,762 National League - South matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.8% of games this season, across 129 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tonbridge Angels at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Hemel Hempstead Town away: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Tonbridge Angels, 1.03 for Hemel Hempstead Town. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HEM 1–1 TON · HEM 1–0 TON · TON 1–3 HEM · HEM 2–0 TON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 31 Aug

TONBRIDGE ANGELS

WWLDLW5–1 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0

HEMEL HEMPSTEAD TOWN

LDDDWD0–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	11	+8	22
2	Salisbury	11	+12	21
3	Billericay Town	11	+11	21
4	Truro City	11	+9	21
5	Dagenham & Redbridge	11	+3	20
6	Ebbsfleet United	8	+11	18
7	Weston-super-Mare	11	+8	18
8	Dover	11	+1	18
9	Tonbridge Angels	11	+9	17
10	Dorking Wanderers	11	+6	17
11	Farnham Town	11	+1	17
12	Torquay	11	+3	16
13	Chelmsford City	10	+6	14
14	Hemel Hempstead Town	11	0	14
15	Folkestone Invicta	11	+3	13
16	Maidenhead	11	0	13
17	Horsham	10	−2	11
18	Farnborough	10	−9	11
19	Chesham United	11	−8	10
20	Braintree	11	−9	10
21	AFC Totton	11	−13	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	−15	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	−17	8
24	Slough Town	11	−18	4