Tonbridge Angels v Folkestone Invicta prediction · National League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Tonbridge AngelsDrawFolkestone Invicta

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Tonbridge Angels 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tonbridge Angels are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tonbridge Angels 44%, draw 25%, Folkestone Invicta 31%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Tonbridge Angels v Folkestone InvictaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Tonbridge Angels win44%

Draw25%

Folkestone Invicta win31%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundNational League South · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tonbridge Angels

Folkestone Invicta

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · National League - South

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Tonbridge Angels	13	+10	21
10	Folkestone Invicta	13	+6	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tonbridge angels winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Tonbridge Angels a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tonbridge Angels v Folkestone Invicta~~1.51 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 8 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 21 v 19~~7 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tonbridge Angels win

Published at 45%, 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tonbridge Angels win	44%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Folkestone Invicta win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Tonbridge Angels or draw	69%	–	–
Tonbridge Angels clean sheet	30%	–	–
Folkestone Invicta clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.4 8.4 5.0 2.1 1 10.1 11.6 7.3 3.0 2 7.3 8.8 5.4 2.2 3 3.7 4.4 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tonbridge Angels down, Folkestone Invicta across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,780 National League - South matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.3% of games this season, across 147 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Tonbridge Angels at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Folkestone Invicta away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Tonbridge Angels, 1.23 for Folkestone Invicta. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 8 Sept

TONBRIDGE ANGELS

LDLWWD0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 3–3

FOLKESTONE INVICTA

LLLDWW1–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	13	+9	26
2	Ebbsfleet United	11	+20	25
3	Truro City	12	+10	24
4	Dagenham & Redbridge	13	+3	23
5	Salisbury	12	+12	22
6	Billericay Town	11	+11	21
7	Tonbridge Angels	13	+10	21
8	Dorking Wanderers	12	+8	20
9	Farnham Town	12	+7	20
10	Folkestone Invicta	13	+6	19
11	Dover	12	+1	19
12	Weston-super-Mare	12	+3	18
13	Horsham	13	0	18
14	Torquay	12	+3	17
15	Chelmsford City	11	+6	15
16	Hemel Hempstead Town	13	−3	14
17	Farnborough	12	−9	14
18	Maidenhead	13	−5	13
19	AFC Totton	13	−12	13
20	Chesham United	12	−10	10
21	Braintree	12	−15	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	12	−16	8
23	Walton & Hersham	12	−18	8
24	Slough Town	13	−21	4