Salisbury v Dover prediction · National League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Salisbury 1–1 Dover SALISBURY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Salisbury win~~51%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.900

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.043

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Salisbury win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Salisbury 51% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–24–25
1′KICK-OFF Salisbury v Dover
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Salisbury win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
45′We said Salisbury at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–38–22
45′SECOND HALF Salisbury 0–0 Dover
47′We said Salisbury at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–17–5
47′HALF-TIME Salisbury 0–0 Dover
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Salisbury 1–0 Dover
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Salisbury win: 51% at kick-off, 78% now
48′A goal for Salisbury on 48′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–5
56′We said Salisbury at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Salisbury win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
70′We said Salisbury at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
79′We said Salisbury at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Salisbury win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
86′We said Salisbury at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
91′We said Salisbury at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Salisbury 1–1 Dover
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Salisbury win: 51% at kick-off, 4% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Salisbury win 97%)
92′Dover score on 90′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 4–94–2
94′1–1 at the end. Our 51% on Salisbury misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Salisbury 1–1 Dover
FTSalisbury 1–1 Dover · Salisbury win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Salisbury are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Salisbury 51%, draw 24%, Dover 25%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Salisbury v DoverBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Salisbury win51%

Draw24%

Dover win25%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundNational League South · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Salisbury

Dover

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Salisbury	11	+12	21
9	Dover	11	+1	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · salisbury winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

51% The market62%

Us51%

~~Market~~62%

We make Salisbury a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Salisbury v Dover~~1.64 – 1.08

~~Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 31 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 21 v 18~~3 v 9

~~The market · Salisbury win~~62% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Salisbury win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Salisbury win	51%	62%	−11
Draw	24%	21%	+3
Dover win	25%	18%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	51%	65%	−14
Both teams to score	52%	61%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	75%	83%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	29%	45%	−16
Salisbury or draw	75%	82%	−7
Salisbury clean sheet	34%	–	–
Dover clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.5 7.5 3.9 1 11.1 11.2 6.2 2.3 2 8.8 9.4 5.0 3 4.8 5.1 2.8 4 2.0 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Salisbury down, Dover across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,769 National League - South matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 136 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Salisbury at home: 2.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Dover away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Salisbury, 1.08 for Dover. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SAL 2–1 DOV · DOV 2–0 SAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 31 Aug

SALISBURY

DWDWWW1–1 · 5–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–1

DOVER

DLWWWD2–2 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	12	+9	25
2	Ebbsfleet United	10	+16	22
3	Salisbury	11	+12	21
4	Billericay Town	11	+11	21
5	Truro City	11	+9	21
6	Tonbridge Angels	12	+10	20
7	Dagenham & Redbridge	12	+1	20
8	Weston-super-Mare	12	+3	18
9	Dover	11	+1	18
10	Dorking Wanderers	11	+6	17
11	Farnham Town	11	+1	17
12	Folkestone Invicta	12	+4	16
13	Torquay	11	+3	16
14	Horsham	12	−1	15
15	Chelmsford City	10	+6	14
16	Hemel Hempstead Town	12	−1	14
17	Farnborough	11	−7	14
18	Maidenhead	12	−1	13
19	Chesham United	11	−8	10
20	Braintree	11	−9	10
21	AFC Totton	12	−14	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	−15	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	−17	8
24	Slough Town	12	−19	4