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Maidstone Utd v Maidenhead
Maidstone Utd
MaidenheadNational League - South · SAT 17 OCT · Gallagher Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Maidstone Utd win at 47%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Maidstone Utd 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–27–26
- 1′KICK-OFF Maidstone Utd v Maidenhead
- 4′Maidstone Utd score on 4′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 74–17–9
- 4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Maidstone Utd 1–0 Maidenhead
- 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Maidstone Utd win: 47% at kick-off, 74% now
- 5′We said Maidstone Utd at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–17–9
- 8′Maidstone Utd score on 4′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 74–17–8
- 8′We said Maidstone Utd at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–17–8
- 10′5′: L. Gravata on the scoresheet for Maidstone Utd, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 74–17–8
- 11′We said Maidstone Utd at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–8
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 76–18–6
- 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Maidstone Utd win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Maidstone Utd 1–0 Maidenhead
- 45′SECOND HALF Maidstone Utd 1–0 Maidenhead
- 49′Maidstone Utd find the net on 48′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
- 49′We said Maidstone Utd at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
- 49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Maidstone Utd 2–0 Maidenhead
- 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Maidstone Utd win: 47% at kick-off, 96% now
- 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Maidstone Utd win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
- 56′We said Maidstone Utd at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 2–1 · 81–16–3
- 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Maidstone Utd 2–1 Maidenhead
- 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Maidstone Utd win: 47% at kick-off, 81% now
- 57′A goal for Maidenhead on 57′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 81–16–3
- 57′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 81–16–3
- 68′We said Maidstone Utd at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
- 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Maidstone Utd win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
- 78′We said Maidstone Utd at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
- 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Maidstone Utd win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
- 90′2–1 at the end. Our 47% on Maidstone Utd comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Maidstone Utd 2–1 Maidenhead
- FTMaidstone Utd 2–1 Maidenhead · Maidstone Utd win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassMaidstone Utd are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Maidstone Utd 47%, draw 27%, Maidenhead 26%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 45%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Maidstone Utd win47%
Maidenhead win26%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
RoundNational League South · matchday 12
VenueGallagher Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Maidstone UtdMIN
MaidenheadEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Maidstone Utd
Maidenhead
Last match: 10 Oct · National League - South
Last match: 10 Oct · National League - South
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Maidstone Utd a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maidstone Utd win | 47% | 43% | +4 |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | +1 |
| Maidenhead win | 26% | 31% | −5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 56% | −15 |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 59% | −14 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | 78% | −11 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 36% | −15 |
| Maidstone Utd or draw | 74% | 69% | +5 |
| Maidstone Utd clean sheet | 39% | – | – |
| Maidenhead clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 31 Aug
MAIDSTONE UTD
MAIDENHEAD
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone Utd | 11 | +8 | 22 |
| 2 | Salisbury | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 3 | Billericay Town | 11 | +11 | 21 |
| 4 | Truro City | 11 | +9 | 21 |
| 5 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 11 | +3 | 20 |
| 6 | Ebbsfleet United | 8 | +11 | 18 |
| 7 | Weston-super-Mare | 11 | +8 | 18 |
| 8 | Dover | 11 | +1 | 18 |
| 9 | Tonbridge Angels | 11 | +9 | 17 |
| 10 | Dorking Wanderers | 11 | +6 | 17 |
| 11 | Farnham Town | 11 | +1 | 17 |
| 12 | Torquay | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 13 | Chelmsford City | 10 | +6 | 14 |
| 14 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 15 | Folkestone Invicta | 11 | +3 | 13 |
| 16 | Maidenhead | 11 | 0 | 13 |
| 17 | Horsham | 10 | −2 | 11 |
| 18 | Farnborough | 10 | −9 | 11 |
| 19 | Chesham United | 11 | −8 | 10 |
| 20 | Braintree | 11 | −9 | 10 |
| 21 | AFC Totton | 11 | −13 | 10 |
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 11 | −15 | 8 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 11 | −17 | 8 |
| 24 | Slough Town | 11 | −18 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Salisbury
Billericay Town
Truro City
Dagenham & Redbridge
Ebbsfleet United
Weston-super-Mare
Dover
Tonbridge Angels
Dorking Wanderers
Farnham Town
Torquay
Chelmsford City
Hemel Hempstead Town
Folkestone Invicta
Horsham
Farnborough
Chesham United
Braintree
AFC Totton
Hampton & Richmond
Walton & Hersham
Slough Town