Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › National League - South › Maidstone Utd v Maidenhead

Back
England flag

Maidstone Utd v Maidenhead

Maidstone Utd
2–1Full time
Maidenhead

National League - South · SAT 17 OCT · Gallagher Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Maidstone Utd 2–1 Maidenhead MAIDSTONE UTD WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Maidstone Utd win47%
The market said43%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.417
The market’s Brier score0.486

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 14 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Maidstone Utd win at 47%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Maidstone Utd 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–27–26
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Maidstone Utd v Maidenhead
  4. 4′Maidstone Utd score on 4′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 74–17–9
  5. 4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Maidstone Utd 1–0 Maidenhead
  6. 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Maidstone Utd win: 47% at kick-off, 74% now
  7. 5′We said Maidstone Utd at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–17–9
  8. 8′Maidstone Utd score on 4′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 74–17–8
  9. 8′We said Maidstone Utd at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–17–8
  10. 10′5′: L. Gravata on the scoresheet for Maidstone Utd, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 74–17–8
  11. 11′We said Maidstone Utd at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–8
  12. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 76–18–6
  13. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Maidstone Utd win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Maidstone Utd 1–0 Maidenhead
  15. 45′SECOND HALF Maidstone Utd 1–0 Maidenhead
  16. 49′Maidstone Utd find the net on 48′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
  17. 49′We said Maidstone Utd at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
  18. 49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Maidstone Utd 2–0 Maidenhead
  19. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Maidstone Utd win: 47% at kick-off, 96% now
  20. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Maidstone Utd win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
  21. 56′We said Maidstone Utd at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 2–1 · 81–16–3
  22. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Maidstone Utd 2–1 Maidenhead
  23. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Maidstone Utd win: 47% at kick-off, 81% now
  24. 57′A goal for Maidenhead on 57′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 81–16–3
  25. 57′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 81–16–3
  26. 68′We said Maidstone Utd at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
  27. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Maidstone Utd win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
  28. 78′We said Maidstone Utd at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  29. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Maidstone Utd win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
  30. 90′2–1 at the end. Our 47% on Maidstone Utd comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
  31. FTFULL TIME Maidstone Utd 2–1 Maidenhead
  32. FTMaidstone Utd 2–1 Maidenhead · Maidstone Utd win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Maidstone Utd are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Maidstone Utd 47%, draw 27%, Maidenhead 26%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Maidstone Utd v MaidenheadBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Maidstone Utd win47%
Draw27%
Maidenhead win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundNational League South · matchday 12

VenueGallagher Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maidstone Utd

Maidenhead

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · National League - South

Last match: 10 Oct · National League - South

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Maidstone Utd11+822
16Maidenhead11013

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maidstone utd winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
47% The market43%
Us47%
Market43%

We make Maidstone Utd a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Maidstone Utd v Maidenhead1.38 – 0.94
Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 31 AugW4 D0 L2 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 22 v 131 v 16
The market · Maidstone Utd win43% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 14:07
Our probability · Maidstone Utd win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Maidstone Utd win47%43%+4
Draw27%26%+1
Maidenhead win26%31%−5
Over 2.5 goals41%56%−15
Both teams to score45%59%−14
Over 1.5 goals67%78%−11
Over 3.5 goals21%36%−15
Maidstone Utd or draw74%69%+5
Maidstone Utd clean sheet39%––
Maidenhead clean sheet26%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.9%
0123450 9.8 9.6 4.4 1 13.9 12.3 5.9 2 9.3 8.6 4.0 3 4.3 4.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Maidstone Utd down, Maidenhead across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.53 of 4
Both scored3 of 4
Last meetingsMaidenhead 2–1 Maidstone Utd · Maidstone Utd 0–1 Maidenhead · Maidenhead 2–1 Maidstone Utd · Maidstone Utd 3–2 Maidenhead

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 31 Aug

MAIDSTONE UTD

WWWLLW4–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1

MAIDENHEAD

DWLDWL1–1 · 3–0 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Maidstone Utd11+822
2Salisbury11+1221
3Billericay Town11+1121
4Truro City11+921
5Dagenham & Redbridge11+320
6Ebbsfleet United8+1118
7Weston-super-Mare11+818
8Dover11+118
9Tonbridge Angels11+917
10Dorking Wanderers11+617
11Farnham Town11+117
12Torquay11+316
13Chelmsford City10+614
14Hemel Hempstead Town11014
15Folkestone Invicta11+313
16Maidenhead11013
17Horsham10−211
18Farnborough10−911
19Chesham United11−810
20Braintree11−910
21AFC Totton11−1310
22Hampton & Richmond11−158
23Walton & Hersham11−178
24Slough Town11−184

The competition's standings before kick-off.