Maidstone Utd v Ebbsfleet United prediction · National League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Maidstone UtdDrawEbbsfleet United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Maidstone Utd 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Maidstone Utd are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Maidstone Utd 42%, draw 25%, Ebbsfleet United 33%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Maidstone Utd v Ebbsfleet UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Maidstone Utd win42%

Draw25%

Ebbsfleet United win33%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundNational League South · matchday 14

VenueGallagher Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maidstone Utd

Ebbsfleet United

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · National League - South

2Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maidstone utd winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Maidstone Utd a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Maidstone Utd v Ebbsfleet United~~1.44 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 8 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 25 v 22~~1 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maidstone Utd win	42%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Ebbsfleet United win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Maidstone Utd or draw	67%	–	–
Maidstone Utd clean sheet	29%	–	–
Ebbsfleet United clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.6 8.8 5.3 2.2 1 10.1 11.7 7.5 3.2 2 7.0 8.6 5.4 2.3 3 3.4 4.2 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maidstone Utd down, Ebbsfleet United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,769 National League - South matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 136 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Maidstone Utd at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Ebbsfleet United away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Maidstone Utd, 1.25 for Ebbsfleet United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~MAI 3–0 EBB · EBB 1–0 MAI · MAI 3–0 EBB · MAI 4–0 EBB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 8 Sept

MAIDSTONE UTD

WLLWWD1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

EBBSFLEET UNITED

WWWWDW1–0 · 2–0 · 5–0 · 6–1 · 2–2 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	12	+9	25
2	Ebbsfleet United	10	+16	22
3	Salisbury	11	+12	21
4	Billericay Town	11	+11	21
5	Truro City	11	+9	21
6	Tonbridge Angels	12	+10	20
7	Dagenham & Redbridge	12	+1	20
8	Weston-super-Mare	12	+3	18
9	Dover	11	+1	18
10	Dorking Wanderers	11	+6	17
11	Farnham Town	11	+1	17
12	Folkestone Invicta	12	+4	16
13	Torquay	11	+3	16
14	Horsham	12	−1	15
15	Chelmsford City	10	+6	14
16	Hemel Hempstead Town	12	−1	14
17	Farnborough	11	−7	14
18	Maidenhead	12	−1	13
19	Chesham United	11	−8	10
20	Braintree	11	−9	10
21	AFC Totton	12	−14	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	−15	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	−17	8
24	Slough Town	12	−19	4