Home › Football › National League - South › Maidenhead v Tonbridge Angels

Maidenhead v Tonbridge Angels

Maidenhead

0–1Full time

Tonbridge Angels

National League - South · SAT 10 OCT · York Road

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Maidenhead 0–1 Tonbridge Angels MAIDENHEAD WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Maidenhead win~~46%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.806

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.769

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Maidenhead win at 46%.
3′KICK-OFF Maidenhead v Tonbridge Angels
10′Much as we predicted: Maidenhead was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–29–27
45′SECOND HALF Maidenhead 0–0 Tonbridge Angels
47′HALF-TIME Maidenhead 0–0 Tonbridge Angels
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Maidenhead 0–1 Tonbridge Angels
83′⚽ GOAL · 84' Maidenhead 0–1 Tonbridge Angels
FTFULL TIME Maidenhead 0–1 Tonbridge Angels
FTMaidenhead 0–1 Tonbridge Angels · Maidenhead win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Maidenhead win46%

Draw26%

Tonbridge Angels win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · York Road

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maidenhead winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

46% The market44%

Us46%

~~Market~~44%

We make Maidenhead a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maidenhead win	46%	44%	+2
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Tonbridge Angels win	28%	29%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	44%	53%	−9
Both teams to score	48%	57%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	70%	75%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	23%	33%	−9
Maidenhead or draw	72%	71%	+1
Maidenhead clean sheet	36%	–	–
Tonbridge Angels clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.6%

0123450 8.5 9.2 4.6 1 12.6 12.1 6.4 2.2 2 8.7 8.8 4.5 3 4.2 4.2 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maidenhead down, Tonbridge Angels across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,749 National League - South matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.3% of games this season, across 116 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Maidenhead at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Tonbridge Angels away: 3.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Maidenhead, 1.03 for Tonbridge Angels. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TON 0–1 MAI · MAI 1–1 TON

Form · last six in National League - South

MAIDENHEAD

LDWLDW0–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 4–0

TONBRIDGE ANGELS

DWWLDL2–2 · 5–1 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	10	+7	19
2	Dagenham & Redbridge	10	+3	19
3	Salisbury	10	+11	18
4	Truro City	10	+8	18
5	Billericay Town	10	+7	18
6	Weston-super-Mare	10	+8	17
7	Farnham Town	10	+2	17
8	Dover	10	+1	17
9	Dorking Wanderers	10	+6	16
10	Tonbridge Angels	10	+8	14
11	Maidenhead	10	+1	13
12	Hemel Hempstead Town	10	0	13
13	Torquay	10	−1	13
14	Ebbsfleet United	6	+4	12
15	Folkestone Invicta	10	+3	12
16	Chelmsford City	9	+1	11
17	Horsham	9	−1	11
18	Farnborough	9	−5	11
19	Chesham United	10	−3	10
20	AFC Totton	9	−7	10
21	Braintree	10	−8	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	10	−13	8
23	Walton & Hersham	10	−18	5
24	Slough Town	10	−14	4