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Horsham v Walton & Hersham

Horsham

1–0Full time

Walton & Hersham

National League - South · SAT 24 OCT · The Fusion Aviation Community Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Horsham 1–0 Walton & Hersham HORSHAM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Horsham win~~52%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.341

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.236

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Horsham win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: Horsham was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–24–24
1′KICK-OFF Horsham v Walton & Hersham
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Horsham win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
45′We said Horsham at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 40%. 0–0 · 40–38–21
45′SECOND HALF Horsham 0–0 Walton & Hersham
47′HALF-TIME Horsham 0–0 Walton & Hersham
48′We said Horsham at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–40–21
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Horsham win 40%)
55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 36–45–20
57′We published Horsham at 52%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–16–3
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Horsham 1–0 Walton & Hersham
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Horsham win: 52% at kick-off, 81% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Horsham win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 46%)
58′Horsham find the net on 58′. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–16–3
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Horsham win: 52% at kick-off, 82% now
61′Horsham ahead on 57′ through J. Yila. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–15–3
69′We published Horsham at 52%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
78′We published Horsham at 52%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Horsham win: 52% at kick-off, 92% now
86′We published Horsham at 52%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
95′Full time, 1–0. We called Horsham at 52% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Horsham 1–0 Walton & Hersham
FTHorsham 1–0 Walton & Hersham · Horsham win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Horsham are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Horsham 52%, draw 24%, Walton & Hersham 24%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Horsham v Walton & HershamBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Horsham win52%

Draw24%

Walton & Hersham win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundNational League South · matchday 13

VenueThe Fusion Aviation Community Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Horsham

Walton & Hersham

4Days since last match14

Last match: 20 Oct · National League - South

Last match: 10 Oct · National League - South

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Horsham	12	−1	15
23	Walton & Hersham	11	−17	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · horsham winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

52% The market60%

Us52%

~~Market~~60%

We make Horsham a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Horsham v Walton & Hersham~~1.66 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 31 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 8~~14 v 23

~~The market · Horsham win~~60% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Horsham win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Horsham win	52%	60%	−8
Draw	24%	21%	+3
Walton & Hersham win	24%	18%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	50%	63%	−13
Both teams to score	51%	59%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	74%	82%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	28%	43%	−15
Horsham or draw	76%	82%	−6
Horsham clean sheet	36%	–	–
Walton & Hersham clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.6%

0123450 6.7 7.4 3.6 1 11.6 11.2 5.9 2.0 2 9.3 9.4 4.8 3 5.2 5.2 2.7 4 2.2 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Horsham down, Walton & Hersham across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,769 National League - South matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 136 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Horsham at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Walton & Hersham away: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Horsham, 1.03 for Walton & Hersham. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~WAL 0–3 HOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 31 Aug

HORSHAM

DLDLWD1–1 · 1–4 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2

WALTON & HERSHAM

LLDDWW1–5 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	12	+9	25
2	Ebbsfleet United	10	+16	22
3	Salisbury	11	+12	21
4	Billericay Town	11	+11	21
5	Truro City	11	+9	21
6	Tonbridge Angels	12	+10	20
7	Dagenham & Redbridge	12	+1	20
8	Weston-super-Mare	12	+3	18
9	Dover	11	+1	18
10	Dorking Wanderers	11	+6	17
11	Farnham Town	11	+1	17
12	Folkestone Invicta	12	+4	16
13	Torquay	11	+3	16
14	Horsham	12	−1	15
15	Chelmsford City	10	+6	14
16	Hemel Hempstead Town	12	−1	14
17	Farnborough	11	−7	14
18	Maidenhead	12	−1	13
19	Chesham United	11	−8	10
20	Braintree	11	−9	10
21	AFC Totton	12	−14	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	−15	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	−17	8
24	Slough Town	12	−19	4