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Horsham v Maidstone Utd

Horsham

1–2Full time

Maidstone Utd

National League - South · SAT 10 OCT · The Fusion Aviation Community Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Horsham 1–2 Maidstone Utd MAIDSTONE UTD WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Maidstone Utd win~~44%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.474

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.464

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Maidstone Utd win at 44%.
4′KICK-OFF Horsham v Maidstone Utd
7′Little has changed for our model: Maidstone Utd 44% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 28–29–42
22′⚽ GOAL · 17' Horsham 0–1 Maidstone Utd
31′N. Boateng scores for Maidstone Utd on 22′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–19–74
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Maidstone Utd win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
45′HALF-TIME Horsham 0–1 Maidstone Utd
45′SECOND HALF Horsham 0–1 Maidstone Utd
47′⚽ GOAL · 46' Horsham 1–1 Maidstone Utd
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Horsham 1–1 Maidstone Utd
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Horsham 1–2 Maidstone Utd · C. Hester-Cook
FTFULL TIME Horsham 1–2 Maidstone Utd
FTHorsham 1–2 Maidstone Utd · Maidstone Utd win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Horsham win29%

Draw27%

Maidstone Utd win44%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · The Fusion Aviation Community Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maidstone utd winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

44% The market44%

Us44%

~~Market~~44%

We make Maidstone Utd a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · maidstone utd win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 42% to 45% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Horsham win	29%	29%	0
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Maidstone Utd win	44%	44%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	40%	54%	−13
Both teams to score	45%	58%	−12
Over 1.5 goals	66%	76%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	20%	34%	−13
Horsham or draw	56%	56%	+1
Horsham clean sheet	27%	–	–
Maidstone Utd clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.3%

0123450 9.9 13.3 8.5 3.7 1 10.3 12.5 8.3 3.7 2 5.0 6.4 4.2 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Horsham down, Maidstone Utd across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,749 National League - South matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.3% of games this season, across 116 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Horsham at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Maidstone Utd away: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Horsham, 1.31 for Maidstone Utd. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~HOR 0–0 MAI · MAI 0–3 HOR

Form · last six in National League - South

HORSHAM

WLDDLD2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 0–0

MAIDSTONE UTD

WWWWLL2–1 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	10	+7	19
2	Dagenham & Redbridge	10	+3	19
3	Salisbury	10	+11	18
4	Truro City	10	+8	18
5	Billericay Town	10	+7	18
6	Weston-super-Mare	10	+8	17
7	Farnham Town	10	+2	17
8	Dover	10	+1	17
9	Dorking Wanderers	10	+6	16
10	Tonbridge Angels	10	+8	14
11	Maidenhead	10	+1	13
12	Hemel Hempstead Town	10	0	13
13	Torquay	10	−1	13
14	Ebbsfleet United	6	+4	12
15	Folkestone Invicta	10	+3	12
16	Chelmsford City	9	+1	11
17	Horsham	9	−1	11
18	Farnborough	9	−5	11
19	Chesham United	10	−3	10
20	AFC Totton	9	−7	10
21	Braintree	10	−8	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	10	−13	8
23	Walton & Hersham	10	−18	5
24	Slough Town	10	−14	4