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Hemel Hempstead Town v AFC Totton

Hemel Hempstead Town

1–3Full time

AFC Totton

National League - South · SAT 24 OCT · Focus Community Arena

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Hemel Hempstead Town 1–3 AFC Totton HEMEL HEMPSTEAD TOWN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hemel Hempstead Town win~~52%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.925

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.018

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hemel Hempstead Town win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Hemel Hempstead Town 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–25–23
1′KICK-OFF Hemel Hempstead Town v AFC Totton
13′We said Hemel Hempstead Town at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–26–50
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Hemel Hempstead Town 0–1 AFC Totton
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Hemel Hempstead Town win: 52% at kick-off, 24% now
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' AFC Totton win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Hemel Hempstead Town win 50%)
14′AFC Totton score on 13′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 23–26–51
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Hemel Hempstead Town win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Hemel Hempstead Town 1–1 AFC Totton
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Hemel Hempstead Town win: 52% at kick-off, 48% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Hemel Hempstead Town win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was AFC Totton win 52%)
23′Hemel Hempstead Town find the net on 22′. 1–1. 1–1 · 47–30–22
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Hemel Hempstead Town 1–2 AFC Totton
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Hemel Hempstead Town win: 52% at kick-off, 20% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' AFC Totton win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Hemel Hempstead Town win 47%)
26′A goal for AFC Totton on 25′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 20–27–54
27′We said Hemel Hempstead Town at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–27–54
30′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 18–27–55
42′We said Hemel Hempstead Town at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–27–59
45′SECOND HALF Hemel Hempstead Town 1–2 AFC Totton
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Hemel Hempstead Town win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
49′HALF-TIME Hemel Hempstead Town 1–2 AFC Totton
55′We said Hemel Hempstead Town at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–26–65
69′We said Hemel Hempstead Town at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–74
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Hemel Hempstead Town win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
80′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–1–99
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Hemel Hempstead Town 1–3 AFC Totton
81′AFC Totton score on 80′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
94′1–3 at the end. Our 52% on Hemel Hempstead Town misses, and the record keeps it. 1–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Hemel Hempstead Town 1–3 AFC Totton
FTHemel Hempstead Town 1–3 AFC Totton · Hemel Hempstead Town win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hemel Hempstead Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hemel Hempstead Town 52%, draw 25%, AFC Totton 23%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Hemel Hempstead Town v AFC TottonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Hemel Hempstead Town win52%

Draw25%

AFC Totton win23%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundNational League South · matchday 13

VenueFocus Community Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hemel Hempstead Town

AFC Totton

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · National League - South

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Hemel Hempstead Town	12	−1	14
21	AFC Totton	12	−14	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hemel hempstead town winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

52% The market57%

Us52%

~~Market~~57%

We make Hemel Hempstead Town a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hemel Hempstead Town v AFC Totton~~1.58 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 14 v 10~~16 v 21

~~The market · Hemel Hempstead Town win~~57% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hemel Hempstead Town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hemel Hempstead Town win	52%	57%	−5
Draw	25%	23%	+2
AFC Totton win	23%	20%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	46%	57%	−11
Both teams to score	48%	57%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	71%	79%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	25%	36%	−11
Hemel Hempstead Town or draw	77%	80%	−3
Hemel Hempstead Town clean sheet	39%	–	–
AFC Totton clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.0%

0123450 7.9 8.0 3.6 1 13.0 11.5 5.6 2 9.9 9.2 4.4 3 5.2 4.9 2.3 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hemel Hempstead Town down, AFC Totton across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,769 National League - South matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 136 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hemel Hempstead Town at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). AFC Totton away: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Hemel Hempstead Town, 0.95 for AFC Totton. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~HEM 2–0 AFC · AFC 2–1 HEM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 5 Sept

HEMEL HEMPSTEAD TOWN

DDDWDL1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–1

AFC TOTTON

LLLLLL1–3 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–5 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	12	+9	25
2	Ebbsfleet United	10	+16	22
3	Salisbury	11	+12	21
4	Billericay Town	11	+11	21
5	Truro City	11	+9	21
6	Tonbridge Angels	12	+10	20
7	Dagenham & Redbridge	12	+1	20
8	Weston-super-Mare	12	+3	18
9	Dover	11	+1	18
10	Dorking Wanderers	11	+6	17
11	Farnham Town	11	+1	17
12	Folkestone Invicta	12	+4	16
13	Torquay	11	+3	16
14	Horsham	12	−1	15
15	Chelmsford City	10	+6	14
16	Hemel Hempstead Town	12	−1	14
17	Farnborough	11	−7	14
18	Maidenhead	12	−1	13
19	Chesham United	11	−8	10
20	Braintree	11	−9	10
21	AFC Totton	12	−14	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	−15	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	−17	8
24	Slough Town	12	−19	4