Home › Football › National League - South › Hampton & Richmond v Ebbsfleet United

Hampton & Richmond v Ebbsfleet United

Hampton & Richmond

0–2Full time

Ebbsfleet United

National League - South · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Hampton & Richmond 0–2 Ebbsfleet United EBBSFLEET UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ebbsfleet United win~~52%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.346

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.312

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ebbsfleet United win at 52%.
3′Much as we predicted: Ebbsfleet United was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 24–24–51
3′KICK-OFF Hampton & Richmond v Ebbsfleet United
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Ebbsfleet United win: 52% at kick-off, 41% now
45′HALF-TIME Hampton & Richmond 0–0 Ebbsfleet United
48′SECOND HALF Hampton & Richmond 0–0 Ebbsfleet United
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Hampton & Richmond 0–1 Ebbsfleet United
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Hampton & Richmond 0–2 Ebbsfleet United
FTFULL TIME Hampton & Richmond 0–2 Ebbsfleet United
FTHampton & Richmond 0–2 Ebbsfleet United · Ebbsfleet United win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Hampton & Richmond win25%

Draw23%

Ebbsfleet United win52%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ebbsfleet united winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

52% The market54%

Us52%

~~Market~~54%

We make Ebbsfleet United a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.7.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hampton & Richmond win	25%	22%	+3
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Ebbsfleet United win	52%	54%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	54%	55%	−1
Both teams to score	55%	55%	0
Over 1.5 goals	77%	76%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	35%	−2
Hampton & Richmond or draw	48%	46%	+2
Hampton & Richmond clean sheet	18%	–	–
Ebbsfleet United clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.7 10.3 8.6 5.0 2.2 1 6.8 10.8 9.4 5.5 2.4 2 3.7 6.2 5.3 3.1 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hampton & Richmond down, Ebbsfleet United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,749 National League - South matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.3% of games this season, across 116 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hampton & Richmond at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ebbsfleet United away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Hampton & Richmond, 1.74 for Ebbsfleet United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~EBB 4–0 HAM · HAM 3–2 EBB · EBB 6–2 HAM · HAM 1–2 EBB

Form · last six in National League - South

HAMPTON & RICHMOND

DLLWDL1–1 · 1–4 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

EBBSFLEET UNITED

WDDWDW2–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	10	+7	19
2	Dagenham & Redbridge	10	+3	19
3	Salisbury	10	+11	18
4	Truro City	10	+8	18
5	Billericay Town	10	+7	18
6	Weston-super-Mare	10	+8	17
7	Farnham Town	10	+2	17
8	Dover	10	+1	17
9	Dorking Wanderers	10	+6	16
10	Tonbridge Angels	10	+8	14
11	Maidenhead	10	+1	13
12	Hemel Hempstead Town	10	0	13
13	Torquay	10	−1	13
14	Ebbsfleet United	6	+4	12
15	Folkestone Invicta	10	+3	12
16	Chelmsford City	9	+1	11
17	Horsham	9	−1	11
18	Farnborough	9	−5	11
19	Chesham United	10	−3	10
20	AFC Totton	9	−7	10
21	Braintree	10	−8	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	10	−13	8
23	Walton & Hersham	10	−18	5
24	Slough Town	10	−14	4