Folkestone Invicta v Farnborough prediction · National League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Folkestone Invicta 2–0 Farnborough FOLKESTONE INVICTA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Folkestone Invicta win~~52%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.340

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.326

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Folkestone Invicta win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Folkestone Invicta 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–22–26
1′KICK-OFF Folkestone Invicta v Farnborough
27′Folkestone Invicta find the net on 26′. 1–0. 1–0 · 75–17–8
27′We said Folkestone Invicta at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–8
27′⚽ GOAL · 26' Folkestone Invicta 1–0 Farnborough
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Folkestone Invicta win: 52% at kick-off, 75% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 75–17–8
45′HALF-TIME Folkestone Invicta 1–0 Farnborough
45′SECOND HALF Folkestone Invicta 1–0 Farnborough
57′We said Folkestone Invicta at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Folkestone Invicta 2–0 Farnborough
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Folkestone Invicta win: 52% at kick-off, 96% now
58′A goal for Folkestone Invicta on 57′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
83′We said Folkestone Invicta at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′2–0 at the end. Our 52% on Folkestone Invicta comes in. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Folkestone Invicta 2–0 Farnborough
FTFolkestone Invicta 2–0 Farnborough · Folkestone Invicta win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Folkestone Invicta are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Folkestone Invicta 52%, draw 22%, Farnborough 26%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Folkestone Invicta v FarnboroughBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Folkestone Invicta win52%

Draw22%

Farnborough win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundNational League South · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Folkestone Invicta

Farnborough

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · National League - South

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Folkestone Invicta	12	+4	16
17	Farnborough	11	−7	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · folkestone invicta winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 03:56 · locked at kick-off

52% The market53%

Us52%

~~Market~~53%

We make Folkestone Invicta a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Folkestone Invicta v Farnborough~~1.90 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 16 v 14~~12 v 17

~~The market · Folkestone Invicta win~~53% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Folkestone Invicta win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Folkestone Invicta win	52%	53%	−1
Draw	22%	23%	−1
Farnborough win	26%	24%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	61%	66%	−5
Both teams to score	60%	64%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	82%	84%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	39%	45%	−6
Folkestone Invicta or draw	74%	76%	−2
Folkestone Invicta clean sheet	29%	–	–
Farnborough clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.1 5.7 3.4 1 8.4 9.8 6.3 2.7 2 7.6 9.4 5.9 2.5 3 4.8 6.0 3.8 4 2.3 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Folkestone Invicta down, Farnborough across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,769 National League - South matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 136 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Folkestone Invicta at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Farnborough away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.90 goals for Folkestone Invicta, 1.26 for Farnborough. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 5 Sept

FOLKESTONE INVICTA

DLLLDW1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

FARNBOROUGH

LLLDLW0–4 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	12	+9	25
2	Ebbsfleet United	10	+16	22
3	Salisbury	11	+12	21
4	Billericay Town	11	+11	21
5	Truro City	11	+9	21
6	Tonbridge Angels	12	+10	20
7	Dagenham & Redbridge	12	+1	20
8	Weston-super-Mare	12	+3	18
9	Dover	11	+1	18
10	Dorking Wanderers	11	+6	17
11	Farnham Town	11	+1	17
12	Folkestone Invicta	12	+4	16
13	Torquay	11	+3	16
14	Horsham	12	−1	15
15	Chelmsford City	10	+6	14
16	Hemel Hempstead Town	12	−1	14
17	Farnborough	11	−7	14
18	Maidenhead	12	−1	13
19	Chesham United	11	−8	10
20	Braintree	11	−9	10
21	AFC Totton	12	−14	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	−15	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	−17	8
24	Slough Town	12	−19	4