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Folkestone Invicta v AFC Totton

Folkestone Invicta

2–1Full time

AFC Totton

National League - South · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Folkestone Invicta 2–1 AFC Totton FOLKESTONE INVICTA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Folkestone Invicta win~~57%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.277

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.299

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Folkestone Invicta win at 57%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Folkestone Invicta 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–22–21
1′KICK-OFF Folkestone Invicta v AFC Totton
7′Little has changed for our model: Folkestone Invicta 57% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–23–21
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Folkestone Invicta win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
42′Folkestone Invicta find the net on 41′. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–15–5
42′We said Folkestone Invicta at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–5
42′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 80–15–5
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Folkestone Invicta 1–0 AFC Totton
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Folkestone Invicta win: 57% at kick-off, 80% now
45′Folkestone Invicta find the net on 44′. 1–0 · 80–15–4
45′We said Folkestone Invicta at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
45′⚽ GOAL · 44' Folkestone Invicta 2–0 AFC Totton
45′HALF-TIME Folkestone Invicta 2–0 AFC Totton
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Folkestone Invicta win: 57% at kick-off, 96% now
45′SECOND HALF Folkestone Invicta 2–0 AFC Totton
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Folkestone Invicta win: 57% at kick-off, 97% now
75′We said Folkestone Invicta at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 2–1 · 88–11–1
75′AFC Totton score on 75′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 88–11–1
75′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 88–11–1
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Folkestone Invicta 2–1 AFC Totton
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Folkestone Invicta win: 57% at kick-off, 88% now
78′We said Folkestone Invicta at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Folkestone Invicta win: 57% at kick-off, 97% now
FTFULL TIME Folkestone Invicta 2–1 AFC Totton
FTFolkestone Invicta 2–1 AFC Totton · Folkestone Invicta win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Folkestone Invicta are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Folkestone Invicta 57%, draw 22%, AFC Totton 21%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Folkestone Invicta v AFC TottonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Folkestone Invicta win57%

Draw22%

AFC Totton win21%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundNational League South · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Folkestone Invicta

AFC Totton

7Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · National League - South

Last match: 13 Oct · National League - South

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Folkestone Invicta	11	+3	13
21	AFC Totton	11	−13	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · folkestone invicta winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:38 · locked at kick-off

57% The market55%

Us57%

~~Market~~55%

We make Folkestone Invicta a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Folkestone Invicta v AFC Totton~~1.89 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 13 v 10~~15 v 21

~~The market · Folkestone Invicta win~~55% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Folkestone Invicta win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 57% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Folkestone Invicta win	57%	55%	+2
Draw	22%	23%	−1
AFC Totton win	21%	21%	0
Over 2.5 goals	56%	61%	−5
Both teams to score	54%	60%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	78%	81%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	34%	41%	−7
Folkestone Invicta or draw	79%	79%	0
Folkestone Invicta clean sheet	35%	–	–
AFC Totton clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.4%

0123450 5.3 5.9 3.0 1 10.4 10.2 5.4 2 9.4 9.7 5.1 3 5.9 6.1 3.2 4 2.8 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Folkestone Invicta down, AFC Totton across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,762 National League - South matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.8% of games this season, across 129 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Folkestone Invicta at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 5). AFC Totton away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for Folkestone Invicta, 1.05 for AFC Totton. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FOL 1–2 AFC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 5 Sept

FOLKESTONE INVICTA

LDLLLD2–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

AFC TOTTON

WLLLLL4–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	11	+8	22
2	Salisbury	11	+12	21
3	Billericay Town	11	+11	21
4	Truro City	11	+9	21
5	Dagenham & Redbridge	11	+3	20
6	Ebbsfleet United	8	+11	18
7	Weston-super-Mare	11	+8	18
8	Dover	11	+1	18
9	Tonbridge Angels	11	+9	17
10	Dorking Wanderers	11	+6	17
11	Farnham Town	11	+1	17
12	Torquay	11	+3	16
13	Chelmsford City	10	+6	14
14	Hemel Hempstead Town	11	0	14
15	Folkestone Invicta	11	+3	13
16	Maidenhead	11	0	13
17	Horsham	10	−2	11
18	Farnborough	10	−9	11
19	Chesham United	11	−8	10
20	Braintree	11	−9	10
21	AFC Totton	11	−13	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	−15	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	−17	8
24	Slough Town	11	−18	4