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Farnham Town v Salisbury

Farnham Town

1–2Full time

Salisbury

National League - South · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Farnham Town 1–2 Salisbury FARNHAM TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Farnham Town win~~44%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.730

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.537

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Farnham Town win at 44%.
0′KICK-OFF Farnham Town v Salisbury
9′7′ and it is 1–0: Farnham Town have scored. 1–0 · 70–18–12
9′⚽ GOAL · 7' Farnham Town 1–0 Salisbury
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Farnham Town win: 44% at kick-off, 70% now
29′We said Farnham Town at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–19–9
46′SECOND HALF Farnham Town 1–0 Salisbury
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Farnham Town 1–1 Salisbury · R. Bingham
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Farnham Town 1–1 Salisbury
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Farnham Town 1–1 Salisbury
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Farnham Town 1–2 Salisbury · J. Hedges
FTFULL TIME Farnham Town 1–2 Salisbury
FTFarnham Town 1–2 Salisbury · Farnham Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Farnham Town win44%

Draw25%

Salisbury win31%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · farnham town winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

44% The market34%

Us44%

~~Market~~34%

We make Farnham Town a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · farnham town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 37% to 34% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Farnham Town win	44%	34%	+10
Draw	25%	25%	−1
Salisbury win	31%	40%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	51%	62%	−11
Both teams to score	54%	65%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	75%	82%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	30%	42%	−12
Farnham Town or draw	69%	60%	+9
Farnham Town clean sheet	30%	–	–
Salisbury clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.4 8.3 4.9 2.0 1 10.1 11.5 7.2 3.0 2 7.4 8.9 5.4 2.2 3 3.8 4.5 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Farnham Town down, Salisbury across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,749 National League - South matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.3% of games this season, across 116 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Farnham Town at home: 1.80 scored, 1.80 conceded a game (last 5). Salisbury away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Farnham Town, 1.23 for Salisbury. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in National League - South

FARNHAM TOWN

WWDWWD2–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 2–2

SALISBURY

WDWDWW1–0 · 1–1 · 5–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	10	+7	19
2	Dagenham & Redbridge	10	+3	19
3	Salisbury	10	+11	18
4	Truro City	10	+8	18
5	Billericay Town	10	+7	18
6	Weston-super-Mare	10	+8	17
7	Farnham Town	10	+2	17
8	Dover	10	+1	17
9	Dorking Wanderers	10	+6	16
10	Tonbridge Angels	10	+8	14
11	Maidenhead	10	+1	13
12	Hemel Hempstead Town	10	0	13
13	Torquay	10	−1	13
14	Ebbsfleet United	6	+4	12
15	Folkestone Invicta	10	+3	12
16	Chelmsford City	9	+1	11
17	Horsham	9	−1	11
18	Farnborough	9	−5	11
19	Chesham United	10	−3	10
20	AFC Totton	9	−7	10
21	Braintree	10	−8	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	10	−13	8
23	Walton & Hersham	10	−18	5
24	Slough Town	10	−14	4