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Farnham Town v Braintree

Farnham Town

6–0Full time

Braintree

National League - South · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Farnham Town 6–0 Braintree FARNHAM TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Farnham Town win~~49%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.393

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.386

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Farnham Town win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Farnham Town was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–22–29
1′KICK-OFF Farnham Town v Braintree
4′We published Farnham Town at 49%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–17–12
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Farnham Town 1–0 Braintree
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Farnham Town win: 49% at kick-off, 71% now
5′Farnham Town score on 5′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 71–17–12
5′We published Farnham Town at 49%. Our model now makes it 88%. 2–0 · 88–8–4
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Farnham Town 2–0 Braintree
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Farnham Town win: 49% at kick-off, 88% now
6′Farnham Town find the net on 6′. 2–0. 2–0 · 88–8–4
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Farnham Town win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
21′We published Farnham Town at 49%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–3
45′SECOND HALF Farnham Town 2–0 Braintree
46′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 2–0 · 93–6–1
48′HALF-TIME Farnham Town 2–0 Braintree
55′We published Farnham Town at 49%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Farnham Town 3–0 Braintree
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Farnham Town win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
59′A goal for Farnham Town on 59′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
64′We published Farnham Town at 49%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
78′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Farnham Town 4–0 Braintree
79′Farnham Town score on 79′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
80′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Farnham Town 5–0 Braintree
81′Farnham Town find the net on 81′. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
87′6 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 6–0 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Farnham Town 6–0 Braintree
88′A goal for Farnham Town on 88′ — 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
93′Full time, 6–0. We called Farnham Town at 49% — that one lands. 6–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Farnham Town 6–0 Braintree
FTFarnham Town 6–0 Braintree · Farnham Town win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Farnham Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Farnham Town 49%, draw 22%, Braintree 29%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Farnham Town v BraintreeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Farnham Town win49%

Draw22%

Braintree win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundNational League South · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Farnham Town

Braintree

14Days since last match11

Last match: 10 Oct · National League - South

Last match: 13 Oct · National League Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Farnham Town	11	+1	17
20	Braintree	11	−9	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · farnham town winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

49% The market49%

Us49%

~~Market~~49%

We make Farnham Town a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Farnham Town v Braintree~~1.81 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 31 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 17 v 10~~11 v 20

~~The market · Farnham Town win~~49% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Farnham Town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Farnham Town win	49%	49%	0
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Braintree win	29%	27%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	60%	62%	−2
Both teams to score	61%	63%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	82%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	39%	42%	−3
Farnham Town or draw	71%	73%	−2
Farnham Town clean sheet	27%	–	–
Braintree clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.3 6.1 3.9 1 8.2 10.0 6.8 3.1 2 7.1 9.1 6.0 2.7 3 4.3 5.6 3.7 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Farnham Town down, Braintree across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,769 National League - South matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 136 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Farnham Town at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Braintree away: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for Farnham Town, 1.33 for Braintree. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 31 Aug

FARNHAM TOWN

WDWWDL2–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–2

BRAINTREE

WWLLLL2–1 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 3–4 · 1–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	12	+9	25
2	Ebbsfleet United	10	+16	22
3	Salisbury	11	+12	21
4	Billericay Town	11	+11	21
5	Truro City	11	+9	21
6	Tonbridge Angels	12	+10	20
7	Dagenham & Redbridge	12	+1	20
8	Weston-super-Mare	12	+3	18
9	Dover	11	+1	18
10	Dorking Wanderers	11	+6	17
11	Farnham Town	11	+1	17
12	Folkestone Invicta	12	+4	16
13	Torquay	11	+3	16
14	Horsham	12	−1	15
15	Chelmsford City	10	+6	14
16	Hemel Hempstead Town	12	−1	14
17	Farnborough	11	−7	14
18	Maidenhead	12	−1	13
19	Chesham United	11	−8	10
20	Braintree	11	−9	10
21	AFC Totton	12	−14	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	−15	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	−17	8
24	Slough Town	12	−19	4