Farnborough v Weston-super-Mare prediction · National League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FarnboroughDrawWeston-super-Mare

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Weston-super-Mare 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Weston-super-Mare are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Farnborough 35%, draw 24%, Weston-super-Mare 42%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Farnborough v Weston-super-MareBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Farnborough win35%

Draw24%

Weston-super-Mare win42%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 19:45

RoundNational League South · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Farnborough

Weston-super-Mare

4Days since last match11

Last match: 24 Oct · National League - South

Last match: 17 Oct · National League - South

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Weston-super-Mare	12	+3	18
17	Farnborough	11	−7	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · weston-super-mare winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Weston-super-Mare a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Farnborough v Weston-super-Mare~~1.39 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 18~~17 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Weston-super-Mare win

Published at 41%, 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Farnborough win	35%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Weston-super-Mare win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Farnborough or draw	58%	–	–
Farnborough clean sheet	22%	–	–
Weston-super-Mare clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.2 8.5 6.3 3.3 1 7.7 11.0 8.6 4.5 2 5.2 7.8 6.0 3.1 3 2.4 3.6 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Farnborough down, Weston-super-Mare across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,780 National League - South matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.3% of games this season, across 147 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.56 goals a meeting; 7 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Farnborough at home: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Weston-super-Mare away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Farnborough, 1.55 for Weston-super-Mare. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.56

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~WES 4–1 FAR · FAR 1–3 WES · FAR 2–1 WES · WES 4–3 FAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 5 Sept

FARNBOROUGH

LLDLWL0–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 2–0 · 0–2

WESTON-SUPER-MARE

LWWLDL0–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–6

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	12	+9	25
2	Ebbsfleet United	10	+16	22
3	Salisbury	11	+12	21
4	Billericay Town	11	+11	21
5	Truro City	11	+9	21
6	Tonbridge Angels	12	+10	20
7	Dagenham & Redbridge	12	+1	20
8	Weston-super-Mare	12	+3	18
9	Dover	11	+1	18
10	Dorking Wanderers	11	+6	17
11	Farnham Town	11	+1	17
12	Folkestone Invicta	12	+4	16
13	Torquay	11	+3	16
14	Horsham	12	−1	15
15	Chelmsford City	10	+6	14
16	Hemel Hempstead Town	12	−1	14
17	Farnborough	11	−7	14
18	Maidenhead	12	−1	13
19	Chesham United	11	−8	10
20	Braintree	11	−9	10
21	AFC Totton	12	−14	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	−15	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	−17	8
24	Slough Town	12	−19	4