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Farnborough v Dagenham & Redbridge

Farnborough

2–0Full time

Dagenham & Redbridge

National League - South · SAT 17 OCT · Saunders Transport Community Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Farnborough 2–0 Dagenham & Redbridge DAGENHAM & REDBRIDGE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dagenham & Redbridge win~~39%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.606

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.805

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dagenham & Redbridge win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dagenham & Redbridge was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 37–25–38
1′KICK-OFF Farnborough v Dagenham & Redbridge
7′Much as we predicted: Dagenham & Redbridge was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 36–26–38
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Dagenham & Redbridge win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Farnborough 0–0 Dagenham & Redbridge
46′SECOND HALF Farnborough 0–0 Dagenham & Redbridge
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Dagenham & Redbridge win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
55′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 27–44–28
57′Farnborough score on 56′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 72–21–6
57′We said Dagenham & Redbridge at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 1–0 · 72–21–6
57′⚽ GOAL · 56' Farnborough 1–0 Dagenham & Redbridge
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Dagenham & Redbridge win: 39% at kick-off, 6% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Farnborough win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 21%)
64′Farnborough find the net on 64′. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Farnborough 2–0 Dagenham & Redbridge
65′We said Dagenham & Redbridge at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
65′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 2–0 · 96–4–1
82′PENALTY MISSED · 82' Dagenham & Redbridge
FTFULL TIME Farnborough 2–0 Dagenham & Redbridge
FTFarnborough 2–0 Dagenham & Redbridge · Dagenham & Redbridge win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Dagenham & Redbridge just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Farnborough 37%, draw 25%, Dagenham & Redbridge 39%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Farnborough v Dagenham & RedbridgeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Farnborough win37%

Draw25%

Dagenham & Redbridge win39%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundNational League South · matchday 12

VenueSaunders Transport Community Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Farnborough

Dagenham & Redbridge

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · National League - South

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Dagenham & Redbridge	11	+3	20
18	Farnborough	10	−9	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dagenham & redbridge winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market47%

Us39%

~~Market~~47%

We make Dagenham & Redbridge a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Farnborough v Dagenham & Redbridge~~1.39 – 1.43

~~Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 31 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 20~~18 v 5

~~The market · Dagenham & Redbridge win~~47% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dagenham & Redbridge win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Farnborough win	37%	28%	+9
Draw	25%	25%	0
Dagenham & Redbridge win	39%	47%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	53%	60%	−7
Both teams to score	56%	62%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	77%	81%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	31%	41%	−10
Farnborough or draw	61%	53%	+8
Farnborough clean sheet	24%	–	–
Dagenham & Redbridge clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.9 8.9 6.1 2.9 1 8.7 11.4 8.3 4.0 2 5.8 8.1 5.7 2.7 3 2.7 3.8 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Farnborough down, Dagenham & Redbridge across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,762 National League - South matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.8% of games this season, across 129 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Farnborough at home: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Dagenham & Redbridge away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Farnborough, 1.43 for Dagenham & Redbridge. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FAR 2–3 DAG · DAG 0–0 FAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 31 Aug

FARNBOROUGH

WLLLDL2–0 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–4

DAGENHAM & REDBRIDGE

WDLLWD1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	11	+8	22
2	Salisbury	11	+12	21
3	Billericay Town	11	+11	21
4	Truro City	11	+9	21
5	Dagenham & Redbridge	11	+3	20
6	Ebbsfleet United	8	+11	18
7	Weston-super-Mare	11	+8	18
8	Dover	11	+1	18
9	Tonbridge Angels	11	+9	17
10	Dorking Wanderers	11	+6	17
11	Farnham Town	11	+1	17
12	Torquay	11	+3	16
13	Chelmsford City	10	+6	14
14	Hemel Hempstead Town	11	0	14
15	Folkestone Invicta	11	+3	13
16	Maidenhead	11	0	13
17	Horsham	10	−2	11
18	Farnborough	10	−9	11
19	Chesham United	11	−8	10
20	Braintree	11	−9	10
21	AFC Totton	11	−13	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	−15	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	−17	8
24	Slough Town	11	−18	4