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Home › Football › National League - South › Ebbsfleet United v Weston-super-Mare

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Ebbsfleet United v Weston-super-Mare

Ebbsfleet United
6–1Full time
Weston-super-Mare

National League - South · SAT 17 OCT · Stonebridge Road Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Ebbsfleet United 6–1 Weston-super-Mare EBBSFLEET UNITED WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Ebbsfleet United win50%
The market said50%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.379
The market’s Brier score0.380

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Ebbsfleet United win at 50%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Ebbsfleet United 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–25
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Ebbsfleet United v Weston-super-Mare
  4. 7′Little has changed for our model: Ebbsfleet United 50% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–25
  5. 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Ebbsfleet United 1–0 Weston-super-Mare
  6. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Ebbsfleet United win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
  7. 8′We said Ebbsfleet United at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–16–9
  8. 9′A goal for Ebbsfleet United on 8′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–16–8
  9. 18′We said Ebbsfleet United at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
  10. 18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Ebbsfleet United 2–0 Weston-super-Mare
  11. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Ebbsfleet United win: 50% at kick-off, 92% now
  12. 19′Ebbsfleet United score on 19′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
  13. 22′We said Ebbsfleet United at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–0 · 98–1–0
  14. 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Ebbsfleet United 3–0 Weston-super-Mare
  15. 23′Ebbsfleet United find the net on 23′. 3–0. 3–0 · 98–1–0
  16. 30′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  17. 40′We said Ebbsfleet United at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  18. 40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Ebbsfleet United 4–0 Weston-super-Mare
  19. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Ebbsfleet United win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
  20. 41′A goal for Ebbsfleet United on 41′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  21. 41′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  22. 45′SECOND HALF Ebbsfleet United 4–0 Weston-super-Mare
  23. 47′HALF-TIME Ebbsfleet United 4–0 Weston-super-Mare
  24. 49′5 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
  25. 49′Ebbsfleet United score on 49′ to make it 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
  26. 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Ebbsfleet United 5–0 Weston-super-Mare
  27. 73′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 6–0 · 100–0–0
  28. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Ebbsfleet United 6–0 Weston-super-Mare
  29. 74′Ebbsfleet United find the net on 74′. 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
  30. 83′7 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 6–1 · 100–0–0
  31. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Ebbsfleet United 6–1 Weston-super-Mare
  32. 84′A goal for Weston-super-Mare on 83′ — 6–1. 6–1 · 100–0–0
  33. 87′🟥 RED CARD · 87' Weston-super-Mare
  34. 88′Weston-super-Mare are down to ten from 88′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 6–1 · 100–0–0
  35. 93′6–1 at the end. Our 50% on Ebbsfleet United comes in. 6–1 · 100–0–0
  36. FTFULL TIME Ebbsfleet United 6–1 Weston-super-Mare
  37. FTEbbsfleet United 6–1 Weston-super-Mare · Ebbsfleet United win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ebbsfleet United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ebbsfleet United 50%, draw 25%, Weston-super-Mare 25%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Ebbsfleet United v Weston-super-MareBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ebbsfleet United win50%
Draw25%
Weston-super-Mare win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundNational League South · matchday 12

VenueStonebridge Road Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ebbsfleet United

Weston-super-Mare

4Days since last match7

Last match: 13 Oct · National League - South

Last match: 10 Oct · National League - South

4Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Ebbsfleet United8+1118
7Weston-super-Mare11+818

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ebbsfleet united winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:38 · locked at kick-off
50% The market50%
Us50%
Market50%

We make Ebbsfleet United a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Ebbsfleet United v Weston-super-Mare1.54 – 1.01
Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 31 AugW4 D2 L0 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 18 v 186 v 7
The market · Ebbsfleet United win50% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 14:07
Our probability · Ebbsfleet United win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Ebbsfleet United win50%50%0
Draw25%26%−1
Weston-super-Mare win25%24%+1
Over 2.5 goals47%51%−4
Both teams to score49%54%−5
Over 1.5 goals72%74%−2
Over 3.5 goals25%30%−5
Ebbsfleet United or draw75%76%−1
Ebbsfleet United clean sheet37%––
Weston-super-Mare clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.4%
0123450 7.8 8.3 4.0 1 12.4 11.7 6.0 2.1 2 9.2 9.1 4.6 3 4.8 4.7 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Ebbsfleet United down, Weston-super-Mare across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsEBB 1–3 WES · WES 1–0 EBB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 31 Aug

EBBSFLEET UNITED

DWDWWW1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 5–0

WESTON-SUPER-MARE

DLWWLD1–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Maidstone Utd11+822
2Salisbury11+1221
3Billericay Town11+1121
4Truro City11+921
5Dagenham & Redbridge11+320
6Ebbsfleet United8+1118
7Weston-super-Mare11+818
8Dover11+118
9Tonbridge Angels11+917
10Dorking Wanderers11+617
11Farnham Town11+117
12Torquay11+316
13Chelmsford City10+614
14Hemel Hempstead Town11014
15Folkestone Invicta11+313
16Maidenhead11013
17Horsham10−211
18Farnborough10−911
19Chesham United11−810
20Braintree11−910
21AFC Totton11−1310
22Hampton & Richmond11−158
23Walton & Hersham11−178
24Slough Town11−184

The competition's standings before kick-off.