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Ebbsfleet United v Weston-super-Mare
Ebbsfleet United
Weston-super-MareNational League - South · SAT 17 OCT · Stonebridge Road Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Ebbsfleet United win at 50%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Ebbsfleet United 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–25
- 1′KICK-OFF Ebbsfleet United v Weston-super-Mare
- 7′Little has changed for our model: Ebbsfleet United 50% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–25
- 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Ebbsfleet United 1–0 Weston-super-Mare
- 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Ebbsfleet United win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
- 8′We said Ebbsfleet United at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–16–9
- 9′A goal for Ebbsfleet United on 8′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–16–8
- 18′We said Ebbsfleet United at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
- 18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Ebbsfleet United 2–0 Weston-super-Mare
- 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Ebbsfleet United win: 50% at kick-off, 92% now
- 19′Ebbsfleet United score on 19′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
- 22′We said Ebbsfleet United at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–0 · 98–1–0
- 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Ebbsfleet United 3–0 Weston-super-Mare
- 23′Ebbsfleet United find the net on 23′. 3–0. 3–0 · 98–1–0
- 30′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
- 40′We said Ebbsfleet United at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
- 40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Ebbsfleet United 4–0 Weston-super-Mare
- 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Ebbsfleet United win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
- 41′A goal for Ebbsfleet United on 41′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
- 41′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
- 45′SECOND HALF Ebbsfleet United 4–0 Weston-super-Mare
- 47′HALF-TIME Ebbsfleet United 4–0 Weston-super-Mare
- 49′5 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
- 49′Ebbsfleet United score on 49′ to make it 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
- 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Ebbsfleet United 5–0 Weston-super-Mare
- 73′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 6–0 · 100–0–0
- 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Ebbsfleet United 6–0 Weston-super-Mare
- 74′Ebbsfleet United find the net on 74′. 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
- 83′7 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 6–1 · 100–0–0
- 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Ebbsfleet United 6–1 Weston-super-Mare
- 84′A goal for Weston-super-Mare on 83′ — 6–1. 6–1 · 100–0–0
- 87′🟥 RED CARD · 87' Weston-super-Mare
- 88′Weston-super-Mare are down to ten from 88′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 6–1 · 100–0–0
- 93′6–1 at the end. Our 50% on Ebbsfleet United comes in. 6–1 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Ebbsfleet United 6–1 Weston-super-Mare
- FTEbbsfleet United 6–1 Weston-super-Mare · Ebbsfleet United win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassEbbsfleet United are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Ebbsfleet United 50%, draw 25%, Weston-super-Mare 25%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 49%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Ebbsfleet United win50%
Weston-super-Mare win25%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
RoundNational League South · matchday 12
VenueStonebridge Road Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Ebbsfleet UnitedMIN
Weston-super-MareEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Ebbsfleet United
Weston-super-Mare
Last match: 13 Oct · National League - South
Last match: 10 Oct · National League - South
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Ebbsfleet United a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 48%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ebbsfleet United win | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | −1 |
| Weston-super-Mare win | 25% | 24% | +1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 51% | −4 |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 54% | −5 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 30% | −5 |
| Ebbsfleet United or draw | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Ebbsfleet United clean sheet | 37% | – | – |
| Weston-super-Mare clean sheet | 22% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 31 Aug
EBBSFLEET UNITED
WESTON-SUPER-MARE
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone Utd | 11 | +8 | 22 |
| 2 | Salisbury | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 3 | Billericay Town | 11 | +11 | 21 |
| 4 | Truro City | 11 | +9 | 21 |
| 5 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 11 | +3 | 20 |
| 6 | Ebbsfleet United | 8 | +11 | 18 |
| 7 | Weston-super-Mare | 11 | +8 | 18 |
| 8 | Dover | 11 | +1 | 18 |
| 9 | Tonbridge Angels | 11 | +9 | 17 |
| 10 | Dorking Wanderers | 11 | +6 | 17 |
| 11 | Farnham Town | 11 | +1 | 17 |
| 12 | Torquay | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 13 | Chelmsford City | 10 | +6 | 14 |
| 14 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 15 | Folkestone Invicta | 11 | +3 | 13 |
| 16 | Maidenhead | 11 | 0 | 13 |
| 17 | Horsham | 10 | −2 | 11 |
| 18 | Farnborough | 10 | −9 | 11 |
| 19 | Chesham United | 11 | −8 | 10 |
| 20 | Braintree | 11 | −9 | 10 |
| 21 | AFC Totton | 11 | −13 | 10 |
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 11 | −15 | 8 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 11 | −17 | 8 |
| 24 | Slough Town | 11 | −18 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Maidstone Utd
Salisbury
Billericay Town
Truro City
Dagenham & Redbridge
Dover
Tonbridge Angels
Dorking Wanderers
Farnham Town
Torquay
Chelmsford City
Hemel Hempstead Town
Folkestone Invicta
Maidenhead
Horsham
Farnborough
Chesham United
Braintree
AFC Totton
Hampton & Richmond
Walton & Hersham
Slough Town