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Ebbsfleet United v Maidenhead

Ebbsfleet United

4–0Full time

Maidenhead

National League - South · SAT 24 OCT · Stonebridge Road Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Ebbsfleet United 4–0 Maidenhead EBBSFLEET UNITED WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ebbsfleet United win~~50%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.371

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.247

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ebbsfleet United win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ebbsfleet United 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–25
1′KICK-OFF Ebbsfleet United v Maidenhead
17′We said Ebbsfleet United at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–17–7
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Ebbsfleet United 1–0 Maidenhead
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Ebbsfleet United win: 50% at kick-off, 76% now
18′A goal for Ebbsfleet United on 17′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–17–7
24′We said Ebbsfleet United at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–1
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Ebbsfleet United 2–0 Maidenhead
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Ebbsfleet United win: 50% at kick-off, 93% now
25′Ebbsfleet United score on 25′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–1
38′We said Ebbsfleet United at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′SECOND HALF Ebbsfleet United 2–0 Maidenhead
47′HALF-TIME Ebbsfleet United 2–0 Maidenhead
58′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 2–0 · 97–3–0
64′We said Ebbsfleet United at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Ebbsfleet United 3–0 Maidenhead
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Ebbsfleet United win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
64′GOAL DISALLOWED · 64' Ebbsfleet United
87′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Ebbsfleet United 3–0 Maidenhead
88′Ebbsfleet United find the net on 88′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
91′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Ebbsfleet United 4–0 Maidenhead
93′A goal for Ebbsfleet United on 90′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
93′4–0 at the end. Our 50% on Ebbsfleet United comes in. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Ebbsfleet United 4–0 Maidenhead
FTEbbsfleet United 4–0 Maidenhead · Ebbsfleet United win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ebbsfleet United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ebbsfleet United 50%, draw 25%, Maidenhead 25%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Ebbsfleet United v MaidenheadBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Ebbsfleet United win50%

Draw25%

Maidenhead win25%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundNational League South · matchday 13

VenueStonebridge Road Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ebbsfleet United

Maidenhead

4Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · National League - South

Last match: 17 Oct · National League - South

4Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Ebbsfleet United	10	+16	22
18	Maidenhead	12	−1	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ebbsfleet united winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 03:56 · locked at kick-off

50% The market59%

Us50%

~~Market~~59%

We make Ebbsfleet United a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ebbsfleet United v Maidenhead~~1.53 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 22 v 13~~2 v 18

~~The market · Ebbsfleet United win~~59% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ebbsfleet United win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ebbsfleet United win	50%	59%	−9
Draw	25%	22%	+3
Maidenhead win	25%	19%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	46%	58%	−12
Both teams to score	48%	56%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	71%	79%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	25%	38%	−13
Ebbsfleet United or draw	75%	81%	−6
Ebbsfleet United clean sheet	38%	–	–
Maidenhead clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.7%

0123450 8.0 8.3 3.9 1 12.7 11.7 5.9 2 9.4 9.1 4.5 3 4.9 4.7 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ebbsfleet United down, Maidenhead across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,769 National League - South matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 136 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.86 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ebbsfleet United at home: 2.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Maidenhead away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Ebbsfleet United, 0.98 for Maidenhead. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.86

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~MAI 1–3 EBB · MAI 2–3 EBB · EBB 3–0 MAI · EBB 0–2 MAI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 5 Sept

EBBSFLEET UNITED

DWWWWD1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 5–0 · 6–1 · 2–2

MAIDENHEAD

WLDWLL3–0 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	12	+9	25
2	Ebbsfleet United	10	+16	22
3	Salisbury	11	+12	21
4	Billericay Town	11	+11	21
5	Truro City	11	+9	21
6	Tonbridge Angels	12	+10	20
7	Dagenham & Redbridge	12	+1	20
8	Weston-super-Mare	12	+3	18
9	Dover	11	+1	18
10	Dorking Wanderers	11	+6	17
11	Farnham Town	11	+1	17
12	Folkestone Invicta	12	+4	16
13	Torquay	11	+3	16
14	Horsham	12	−1	15
15	Chelmsford City	10	+6	14
16	Hemel Hempstead Town	12	−1	14
17	Farnborough	11	−7	14
18	Maidenhead	12	−1	13
19	Chesham United	11	−8	10
20	Braintree	11	−9	10
21	AFC Totton	12	−14	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	−15	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	−17	8
24	Slough Town	12	−19	4