Ebbsfleet United v Horsham

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Ebbsfleet United win at 58%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Ebbsfleet United 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–23–19
3. 1′KICK-OFF Ebbsfleet United v Horsham
4. 27′We said Ebbsfleet United at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–28–49
5. 27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Ebbsfleet United 0–1 Horsham
6. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Ebbsfleet United win: 58% at kick-off, 23% now
7. 27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Horsham win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Ebbsfleet United win 51%)
8. 28′Horsham find the net on 28′. 0–1. 0–1 · 23–28–49
9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 22–28–50
10. 38′We said Ebbsfleet United at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–28–53
11. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Ebbsfleet United win: 58% at kick-off, 18% now
12. 45′SECOND HALF Ebbsfleet United 0–1 Horsham
13. 47′HALF-TIME Ebbsfleet United 0–1 Horsham
14. 49′We said Ebbsfleet United at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–28–58
15. 60′We said Ebbsfleet United at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–26–64
16. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Ebbsfleet United win: 58% at kick-off, 8% now
17. 72′We said Ebbsfleet United at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
18. 78′A goal for Ebbsfleet United on 78′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 19–73–9
19. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Ebbsfleet United 1–1 Horsham
20. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Ebbsfleet United win: 58% at kick-off, 19% now
21. 78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Draw is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Horsham win 81%)
22. 82′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 1–12–87
23. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Ebbsfleet United 1–2 Horsham
24. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Ebbsfleet United win: 58% at kick-off, 1% now
25. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Horsham win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 80%)
26. 83′Horsham score on 83′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 1–11–88
27. 91′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 5–93–2
28. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Ebbsfleet United 2–2 Horsham
29. 91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Horsham win 95%)
30. 92′Ebbsfleet United find the net on 90′. 2–2. 2–2 · 4–94–2
31. 96′2–2 at the end. Our 58% on Ebbsfleet United misses, and the record keeps it. 2–2 · 0–100–0
32. FTFULL TIME Ebbsfleet United 2–2 Horsham
33. FTEbbsfleet United 2–2 Horsham · Ebbsfleet United win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.