Home › Football › National League - South › Ebbsfleet United v AFC Totton

Ebbsfleet United v AFC Totton

Ebbsfleet United

5–0Full time

AFC Totton

National League - South · TUE 13 OCT · Stonebridge Road Stadium

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Ebbsfleet United 5–0 AFC Totton EBBSFLEET UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ebbsfleet United win~~64%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.193

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.178

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ebbsfleet United win at 64%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ebbsfleet United 64% before kick-off, 64% now. 0–0 · 64–20–15
1′KICK-OFF Ebbsfleet United v AFC Totton
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Ebbsfleet United win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
40′We said Ebbsfleet United at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 52%. 0–0 · 52–32–16
45′HALF-TIME Ebbsfleet United 0–0 AFC Totton
45′SECOND HALF Ebbsfleet United 0–0 AFC Totton
46′We said Ebbsfleet United at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–35–16
55′We said Ebbsfleet United at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–41–15
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Ebbsfleet United win: 64% at kick-off, 44% now
56′Goalless on 56′ when we expected about 3.0 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 43–42–15
58′We said Ebbsfleet United at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–12–2
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Ebbsfleet United 1–0 AFC Totton
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Ebbsfleet United win: 64% at kick-off, 85% now
59′Ebbsfleet United find the net on 59′. 1–0. 1–0 · 86–12–2
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Ebbsfleet United 1–0 AFC Totton
60′A goal for Ebbsfleet United on 61′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Ebbsfleet United 2–0 AFC Totton
60′⚽ GOAL · 61' Ebbsfleet United 2–0 AFC Totton
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Ebbsfleet United win: 64% at kick-off, 98% now
61′We said Ebbsfleet United at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
62′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 2–0 · 98–2–0
67′68′ and it is 3–0: Ebbsfleet United have scored. 3–0 · 100–0–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Ebbsfleet United 3–0 AFC Totton · D. Ogunleye
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Ebbsfleet United 4–0 AFC Totton · D. Ogunleye
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Ebbsfleet United 5–0 AFC Totton · R. Nelson
85′GOAL DISALLOWED · 85' Ebbsfleet United
92′Ebbsfleet United ahead on 76′ through R. Nelson. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
93′A goal for Ebbsfleet United on 90′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Ebbsfleet United 5–0 AFC Totton · R. Nelson
FTFULL TIME Ebbsfleet United 5–0 AFC Totton
FTEbbsfleet United 5–0 AFC Totton · Ebbsfleet United win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Ebbsfleet United win64%

Draw20%

AFC Totton win16%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

VenueStonebridge Road Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ebbsfleet United

AFC Totton

3Days since last match3

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Ebbsfleet United	7	+6	15
20	AFC Totton	10	−8	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ebbsfleet united winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

64% The market66%

Us64%

~~Market~~66%

We make Ebbsfleet United a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.1–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ebbsfleet united win The market, margin stripped

Published at 63%, 64% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ebbsfleet United win	64%	66%	−2
Draw	20%	20%	0
AFC Totton win	16%	14%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	56%	60%	−3
Both teams to score	51%	54%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	80%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	34%	39%	−5
Ebbsfleet United or draw	84%	86%	−2
Ebbsfleet United clean sheet	41%	–	–
AFC Totton clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.1%

0123450 5.2 5.0 2.1 1 11.1 9.3 4.3 2 11.0 9.6 4.3 3 7.5 6.6 3.0 4 3.9 3.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ebbsfleet United down, AFC Totton across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,761 National League - South matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.4% of games this season, across 128 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ebbsfleet United at home: 2.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). AFC Totton away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.06 goals for Ebbsfleet United, 0.89 for AFC Totton. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~EBB 4–0 AFC · AFC 0–2 EBB

Form · last six in National League - South

EBBSFLEET UNITED

DDWDWW0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0

AFC TOTTON

DWLLLL1–1 · 4–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	11	+8	22
2	Salisbury	11	+12	21
3	Billericay Town	11	+11	21
4	Truro City	11	+9	21
5	Dagenham & Redbridge	11	+3	20
6	Weston-super-Mare	11	+8	18
7	Dover	11	+1	18
8	Tonbridge Angels	11	+9	17
9	Dorking Wanderers	11	+6	17
10	Farnham Town	11	+1	17
11	Torquay	11	+3	16
12	Ebbsfleet United	7	+6	15
13	Chelmsford City	10	+6	14
14	Hemel Hempstead Town	11	0	14
15	Folkestone Invicta	11	+3	13
16	Maidenhead	11	0	13
17	Horsham	10	−2	11
18	Farnborough	10	−9	11
19	Chesham United	11	−8	10
20	AFC Totton	10	−8	10
21	Braintree	11	−9	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	−15	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	−17	8
24	Slough Town	11	−18	4