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Dover v Dorking Wanderers

Dover

1–1Full time

Dorking Wanderers

National League - South · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Dover 1–1 Dorking Wanderers DORKING WANDERERS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Dorking Wanderers win~~51%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.952

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.916

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dorking Wanderers win at 51%.
3′Much as we predicted: Dorking Wanderers was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 27–22–50
3′KICK-OFF Dover v Dorking Wanderers
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Dover 0–1 Dorking Wanderers
16′⚽ GOAL · 14' Dover 0–0 Dorking Wanderers
25′A goal for Dorking Wanderers on 14′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 27–27–46
46′HALF-TIME Dover 0–0 Dorking Wanderers
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Dorking Wanderers win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
46′SECOND HALF Dover 0–0 Dorking Wanderers
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Dover 0–1 Dorking Wanderers
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Dover 1–1 Dorking Wanderers · A. Rutherford
91′PENALTY MISSED · 91' Dover
91′⚽ GOAL · 92' Dover 1–1 Dorking Wanderers
FTFULL TIME Dover 1–1 Dorking Wanderers
FTDover 1–1 Dorking Wanderers · Dorking Wanderers win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Dover win28%

Draw21%

Dorking Wanderers win51%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dorking wanderers winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

51% The market51%

Us51%

~~Market~~51%

We make Dorking Wanderers a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · dorking wanderers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 50% to 51% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dover win	28%	26%	+2
Draw	21%	23%	−2
Dorking Wanderers win	51%	51%	0
Over 2.5 goals	64%	65%	−1
Both teams to score	63%	65%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	84%	83%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	42%	45%	−2
Dover or draw	49%	49%	0
Dover clean sheet	15%	–	–
Dorking Wanderers clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.6 7.4 6.8 4.4 2.2 1 5.3 9.4 9.2 5.9 2.9 2 3.5 6.6 6.3 4.1 2.0 3 3.0 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dover down, Dorking Wanderers across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,749 National League - South matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.3% of games this season, across 116 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dover at home: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Dorking Wanderers away: 2.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Dover, 1.94 for Dorking Wanderers. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~DOR 2–0 DOV · DOV 2–2 DOR

Form · last six in National League - South

DOVER

DDLWWW3–3 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–0

DORKING WANDERERS

WWDDDW4–1 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 4–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	10	+7	19
2	Dagenham & Redbridge	10	+3	19
3	Salisbury	10	+11	18
4	Truro City	10	+8	18
5	Billericay Town	10	+7	18
6	Weston-super-Mare	10	+8	17
7	Farnham Town	10	+2	17
8	Dover	10	+1	17
9	Dorking Wanderers	10	+6	16
10	Tonbridge Angels	10	+8	14
11	Maidenhead	10	+1	13
12	Hemel Hempstead Town	10	0	13
13	Torquay	10	−1	13
14	Ebbsfleet United	6	+4	12
15	Folkestone Invicta	10	+3	12
16	Chelmsford City	9	+1	11
17	Horsham	9	−1	11
18	Farnborough	9	−5	11
19	Chesham United	10	−3	10
20	AFC Totton	9	−7	10
21	Braintree	10	−8	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	10	−13	8
23	Walton & Hersham	10	−18	5
24	Slough Town	10	−14	4