Dover v Chelmsford City prediction · National League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

DoverDrawChelmsford City

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Chelmsford City 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chelmsford City are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dover 30%, draw 24%, Chelmsford City 47%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Dover v Chelmsford CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Dover win30%

Draw24%

Chelmsford City win47%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundNational League South · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dover

Chelmsford City

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · National League - South

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Dover	12	+1	19
15	Chelmsford City	11	+6	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chelmsford city winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Chelmsford City a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dover v Chelmsford City~~1.26 – 1.64

~~Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D5 L0

~~Table places · points 19 v 15~~11 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Chelmsford City win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dover win	30%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Chelmsford City win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Dover or draw	53%	–	–
Dover clean sheet	20%	–	–
Chelmsford City clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.5 9.4 7.4 4.1 1 7.3 11.0 9.1 5.0 2.1 2 4.4 7.0 5.7 3.1 3 3.0 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dover down, Chelmsford City across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,780 National League - South matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.3% of games this season, across 147 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.83 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dover at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Chelmsford City away: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Dover, 1.64 for Chelmsford City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CHE 1–2 DOV · DOV 0–1 CHE · DOV 1–0 CHE · CHE 3–3 DOV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 5 Sept

DOVER

LWWWDD0–3 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

CHELMSFORD CITY

DDDDWD1–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 5–0 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	13	+9	26
2	Ebbsfleet United	11	+20	25
3	Truro City	12	+10	24
4	Dagenham & Redbridge	13	+3	23
5	Salisbury	12	+12	22
6	Billericay Town	11	+11	21
7	Tonbridge Angels	13	+10	21
8	Dorking Wanderers	12	+8	20
9	Farnham Town	12	+7	20
10	Folkestone Invicta	13	+6	19
11	Dover	12	+1	19
12	Weston-super-Mare	12	+3	18
13	Horsham	13	0	18
14	Torquay	12	+3	17
15	Chelmsford City	11	+6	15
16	Hemel Hempstead Town	13	−3	14
17	Farnborough	12	−9	14
18	Maidenhead	13	−5	13
19	AFC Totton	13	−12	13
20	Chesham United	12	−10	10
21	Braintree	12	−15	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	12	−16	8
23	Walton & Hersham	12	−18	8
24	Slough Town	13	−21	4