Dorking Wanderers v Hemel Hempstead Town prediction · National League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Dorking WanderersDrawHemel Hempstead Town

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Dorking Wanderers 56%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dorking Wanderers are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dorking Wanderers 56%, draw 23%, Hemel Hempstead Town 22%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Dorking Wanderers v Hemel Hempstead TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Dorking Wanderers win56%

Draw23%

Hemel Hempstead Town win22%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundNational League South · matchday 14

VenueMeadowbank

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dorking Wanderers

Hemel Hempstead Town

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · National League - South

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Dorking Wanderers	12	+8	20
16	Hemel Hempstead Town	13	−3	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dorking wanderers winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Dorking Wanderers a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dorking Wanderers v Hemel Hempstead Town~~1.81 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D4 L0 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 20 v 14~~8 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dorking Wanderers win

Published at 54%, 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dorking Wanderers win	56%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Hemel Hempstead Town win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Dorking Wanderers or draw	78%	–	–
Dorking Wanderers clean sheet	36%	–	–
Hemel Hempstead Town clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.9%

0123450 5.8 6.4 3.2 1 10.9 10.6 5.6 2 9.5 9.6 5.0 3 5.7 5.8 3.0 4 2.6 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dorking Wanderers down, Hemel Hempstead Town across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,780 National League - South matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.3% of games this season, across 147 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.17 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dorking Wanderers at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Hemel Hempstead Town away: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for Dorking Wanderers, 1.03 for Hemel Hempstead Town. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.17

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~DOR 2–1 HEM · HEM 2–0 DOR · HEM 1–7 DOR · DOR 3–2 HEM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 5 Sept

DORKING WANDERERS

DDDWDW3–3 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 4–3 · 1–1 · 3–1

HEMEL HEMPSTEAD TOWN

DDWDLL0–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	13	+9	26
2	Ebbsfleet United	11	+20	25
3	Truro City	12	+10	24
4	Dagenham & Redbridge	13	+3	23
5	Salisbury	12	+12	22
6	Billericay Town	11	+11	21
7	Tonbridge Angels	13	+10	21
8	Dorking Wanderers	12	+8	20
9	Farnham Town	12	+7	20
10	Folkestone Invicta	13	+6	19
11	Dover	12	+1	19
12	Weston-super-Mare	12	+3	18
13	Horsham	13	0	18
14	Torquay	12	+3	17
15	Chelmsford City	11	+6	15
16	Hemel Hempstead Town	13	−3	14
17	Farnborough	12	−9	14
18	Maidenhead	13	−5	13
19	AFC Totton	13	−12	13
20	Chesham United	12	−10	10
21	Braintree	12	−15	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	12	−16	8
23	Walton & Hersham	12	−18	8
24	Slough Town	13	−21	4