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Dagenham & Redbridge v Hemel Hempstead Town

Dagenham & Redbridge

0–0Full time

Hemel Hempstead Town

National League - South · SAT 10 OCT · Victoria Road

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Dagenham & Redbridge 0–0 Hemel Hempstead Town DAGENHAM & REDBRIDGE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dagenham & Redbridge win~~42%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.787

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.827

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dagenham & Redbridge win at 42%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Dagenham & Redbridge 42% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–29–29
3′KICK-OFF Dagenham & Redbridge v Hemel Hempstead Town
45′HALF-TIME Dagenham & Redbridge 0–0 Hemel Hempstead Town
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Dagenham & Redbridge win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Dagenham & Redbridge win 32%)
48′SECOND HALF Dagenham & Redbridge 0–0 Hemel Hempstead Town
FTFULL TIME Dagenham & Redbridge 0–0 Hemel Hempstead Town
FTDagenham & Redbridge 0–0 Hemel Hempstead Town · Dagenham & Redbridge win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Dagenham & Redbridge win42%

Draw28%

Hemel Hempstead Town win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Victoria Road

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dagenham & redbridge winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

42% The market47%

Us42%

~~Market~~47%

We make Dagenham & Redbridge a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · dagenham & redbridge win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 50% to 47% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dagenham & Redbridge win	42%	47%	−5
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Hemel Hempstead Town win	30%	26%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	39%	49%	−11
Both teams to score	44%	53%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	65%	73%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	19%	28%	−9
Dagenham & Redbridge or draw	70%	74%	−3
Dagenham & Redbridge clean sheet	37%	–	–
Hemel Hempstead Town clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.6%

0123450 10.6 11.0 5.3 1 13.6 12.7 6.5 2.2 2 8.2 8.1 4.0 3 3.4 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dagenham & Redbridge down, Hemel Hempstead Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,749 National League - South matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.3% of games this season, across 116 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dagenham & Redbridge at home: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Hemel Hempstead Town away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Dagenham & Redbridge, 0.99 for Hemel Hempstead Town. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~HEM 1–0 DAG · DAG 2–1 HEM

Form · last six in National League - South

DAGENHAM & REDBRIDGE

LWDLLW0–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

HEMEL HEMPSTEAD TOWN

LLDDDW1–3 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	10	+7	19
2	Dagenham & Redbridge	10	+3	19
3	Salisbury	10	+11	18
4	Truro City	10	+8	18
5	Billericay Town	10	+7	18
6	Weston-super-Mare	10	+8	17
7	Farnham Town	10	+2	17
8	Dover	10	+1	17
9	Dorking Wanderers	10	+6	16
10	Tonbridge Angels	10	+8	14
11	Maidenhead	10	+1	13
12	Hemel Hempstead Town	10	0	13
13	Torquay	10	−1	13
14	Ebbsfleet United	6	+4	12
15	Folkestone Invicta	10	+3	12
16	Chelmsford City	9	+1	11
17	Horsham	9	−1	11
18	Farnborough	9	−5	11
19	Chesham United	10	−3	10
20	AFC Totton	9	−7	10
21	Braintree	10	−8	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	10	−13	8
23	Walton & Hersham	10	−18	5
24	Slough Town	10	−14	4