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Dagenham & Redbridge v Chesham United

Dagenham & Redbridge

2–0Full time

Chesham United

National League - South · SAT 24 OCT · Victoria Road

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Dagenham & Redbridge 2–0 Chesham United DAGENHAM & REDBRIDGE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dagenham & Redbridge win~~44%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.476

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.317

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dagenham & Redbridge win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dagenham & Redbridge was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–25–31
1′KICK-OFF Dagenham & Redbridge v Chesham United
24′Dagenham & Redbridge find the net on 24′. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–19–10
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Dagenham & Redbridge 1–0 Chesham United
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Dagenham & Redbridge win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
25′We published Dagenham & Redbridge at 44%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–19–10
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 71–20–9
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Dagenham & Redbridge win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
45′We published Dagenham & Redbridge at 44%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–1
45′HALF-TIME Dagenham & Redbridge 2–0 Chesham United
46′SECOND HALF Dagenham & Redbridge 2–0 Chesham United
47′A goal for Dagenham & Redbridge on 45′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Dagenham & Redbridge 2–0 Chesham United
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' Dagenham & Redbridge win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
53′We published Dagenham & Redbridge at 44%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
82′We published Dagenham & Redbridge at 44%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Dagenham & Redbridge 2–0 Chesham United
FTDagenham & Redbridge 2–0 Chesham United · Dagenham & Redbridge win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dagenham & Redbridge are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dagenham & Redbridge 44%, draw 25%, Chesham United 31%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Dagenham & Redbridge v Chesham UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Dagenham & Redbridge win44%

Draw25%

Chesham United win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundNational League South · matchday 13

VenueVictoria Road

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dagenham & Redbridge

Chesham United

7Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · National League - South

Last match: 20 Oct · the English FA Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Dagenham & Redbridge	12	+1	20
19	Chesham United	11	−8	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dagenham & redbridge winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market54%

Us44%

~~Market~~54%

We make Dagenham & Redbridge a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dagenham & Redbridge v Chesham United~~1.46 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 31 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 20 v 10~~7 v 19

~~The market · Dagenham & Redbridge win~~54% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dagenham & Redbridge win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dagenham & Redbridge win	44%	54%	−10
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Chesham United win	31%	22%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	49%	57%	−8
Both teams to score	52%	57%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	73%	79%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	27%	36%	−9
Dagenham & Redbridge or draw	69%	78%	−9
Dagenham & Redbridge clean sheet	31%	–	–
Chesham United clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.0 8.8 5.0 2.0 1 10.7 11.8 7.1 2.9 2 7.6 8.8 5.2 2.1 3 3.7 4.3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dagenham & Redbridge down, Chesham United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,769 National League - South matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 136 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dagenham & Redbridge at home: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Chesham United away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Dagenham & Redbridge, 1.18 for Chesham United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CHE 0–1 DAG · DAG 3–1 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 31 Aug

DAGENHAM & REDBRIDGE

DLLWDL1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–2

CHESHAM UNITED

DLLWLL2–2 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 0–4 · 0–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	12	+9	25
2	Ebbsfleet United	10	+16	22
3	Salisbury	11	+12	21
4	Billericay Town	11	+11	21
5	Truro City	11	+9	21
6	Tonbridge Angels	12	+10	20
7	Dagenham & Redbridge	12	+1	20
8	Weston-super-Mare	12	+3	18
9	Dover	11	+1	18
10	Dorking Wanderers	11	+6	17
11	Farnham Town	11	+1	17
12	Folkestone Invicta	12	+4	16
13	Torquay	11	+3	16
14	Horsham	12	−1	15
15	Chelmsford City	10	+6	14
16	Hemel Hempstead Town	12	−1	14
17	Farnborough	11	−7	14
18	Maidenhead	12	−1	13
19	Chesham United	11	−8	10
20	Braintree	11	−9	10
21	AFC Totton	12	−14	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	−15	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	−17	8
24	Slough Town	12	−19	4