Chesham United v Farnham Town prediction · National League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Chesham UnitedDrawFarnham Town

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Chesham United 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Chesham United just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Chesham United 39%, draw 23%, Farnham Town 38%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Chesham United v Farnham TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Chesham United win39%

Draw23%

Farnham Town win38%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundNational League South · matchday 14

VenueThe Meadow

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chesham United

Farnham Town

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · National League - South

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Farnham Town	12	+7	20
20	Chesham United	12	−10	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chesham united winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Chesham United a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chesham United v Farnham Town~~1.59 – 1.59

~~Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 20~~20 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Chesham United win

Published at 43%, 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chesham United win	39%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Farnham Town win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Chesham United or draw	62%	–	–
Chesham United clean sheet	21%	–	–
Farnham Town clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.1 6.9 5.3 2.8 1 7.0 10.2 8.2 4.3 2 5.3 8.2 6.4 3.4 3 2.8 4.4 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chesham United down, Farnham Town across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,780 National League - South matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.3% of games this season, across 147 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Chesham United at home: 0.83 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Farnham Town away: 1.40 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Chesham United, 1.59 for Farnham Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National League - South this season · since 5 Sept

CHESHAM UNITED

LLWLLL1–3 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 0–4 · 0–5 · 0–2

FARNHAM TOWN

DWWDLW1–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 6–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	13	+9	26
2	Ebbsfleet United	11	+20	25
3	Truro City	12	+10	24
4	Dagenham & Redbridge	13	+3	23
5	Salisbury	12	+12	22
6	Billericay Town	11	+11	21
7	Tonbridge Angels	13	+10	21
8	Dorking Wanderers	12	+8	20
9	Farnham Town	12	+7	20
10	Folkestone Invicta	13	+6	19
11	Dover	12	+1	19
12	Weston-super-Mare	12	+3	18
13	Horsham	13	0	18
14	Torquay	12	+3	17
15	Chelmsford City	11	+6	15
16	Hemel Hempstead Town	13	−3	14
17	Farnborough	12	−9	14
18	Maidenhead	13	−5	13
19	AFC Totton	13	−12	13
20	Chesham United	12	−10	10
21	Braintree	12	−15	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	12	−16	8
23	Walton & Hersham	12	−18	8
24	Slough Town	13	−21	4